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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (23504)	8/18/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

I have a very important question to ask IT and software NOS experts regarding the time Novell has between now and end of 1999, and the actual window available for companies to migrate from older NW3.11 or NW4.10, to NW4.11 or NW5.0. First I will take some excerpts from two recent articles I posted, and then I will pose my question. news.com <<The company has decided against charging users of its NetWare 4.10 operating system for a full upgrade to NetWare version 4.11, which makes the operating system Year 2000-ready. Instead, the company will post a free Year2000 update patch for NetWare 4.10 on its Web site in the fourth quarter, escaping the possibility of lawsuits filed against the company by disgruntled customers who claim there is not enough time to do a full upgrade before the year 2000 arrives. Prior to the decision, customers had been told they would need to pay for an upgrade to version 4.11 to ensure their software would continue to work after the century date change. The upgrade also included new features. The upgrade policy was the subject of a complaint lodged with New Zealand Commerce Commission in June, according to press reports in that country. Novell released NetWare 4.10 back in 1994. Slitz said Novell would prefer customers to upgrade to 4.11, but some customers are saying there just isn't enough time to do that. Outside of the complaint to the Commerce Commission in New Zealand, no other complaints or lawsuits were filed against the company in regards to this issue, he said. "We are recognizing the needs of our installed base," he said. "But 4.11 is a system upgrade, and is a better product." Novell has also said that NetWare 3.11 is not Year 2000 complaint. The company has recommended that those users upgrade to version 3.12 or 4.11 to ensure compliance.>> << (Print 08/17/98) NetWare 5.0 ready a month early Laura DiDio computerworld.com By shipping its NetWare 5.0 operating system a month ahead of schedule, Novell, Inc. is giving some of its customers another weapon in their year 2000 upgrade arsenals- and also bolstering the business case for NetWare. Several of the new features make a compelling case for upgrading to NetWare 5.0, according to eight users interviewed by Computerworld last week. Those features include an updated version of Novell Directory Services (NDS), native TCP/IP and bundled entry-level versions of Oracle Corp.'s Oracle8 database and the Zenworks management utility. "Getting NetWare 5.0 ahead of time means that I should be able to complete the upgrade of my 89 NetWare 4.x servers in a nine-state area within three months," said James Graham, network architect at BellSouth Business Systems, Inc. in Atlanta. "This is crucial since the year 2000 upgrade is looming, and we expect to devote all of 1999 to year 2000 issues." a migration headache Not all users were as optimistic. Sharon Pryor, manager of network services at The Toro Co. in Minneapolis, said her company is sticking with NetWare 4.11 until its year 2000 issues are resolved. "We have looked at NetWare 5.0 - and it looks like it will bring some nice features to the table - but it's a big migration. And we've got more than enough on our plates with year 2000," Pryor said. For BellSouth Business Services, the lure of NetWare 5.0's advanced feature set - particularly NDS and Zenworks - offers enough of a business case to migrate now. Those functions, Graham said, tipped the scales in favor of NetWare vs. Microsoft Corp.'s Windows NT Server.>> My question is "Are these companies that mention that they have enough on their plates with year 2000, a minority or a majority of businesses that will at some point hold off in migrating their NOS to NW4.11 or NW5.0"? Has Schmidt primed the pump (his visits to all major clients) so that most of the big companies will move quickly to migrating to NW5? Also, while we are all acutely aware that NT 5.0 has missed the window of a released product to upgrade prior to Y2K, how much of a window does Novell have before the migration process hits a wall for both NW4.11 as well as NW5.0? February-March 1999, June 1999? I hate to sound somber, but if its early into 1999, then a mid-Sept98 release date gives Novell 5-7 months of time to sell upgrades. Otherwise, I'm concerned about what the Novell's sales will be the balance of 1999. Microsoft has the product depth to handle this lull with NT4, but I'm trying to get a idea of how Novell will be affected. Thanks for any insights, opinions and enlightenment! Regards, QuadK