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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (37615)	8/18/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Tery, In the short term, I'm always with the trend. But the technical picture alone is not enough to risk buying calls. Remember HWP a few months ago when it finally broke out of a long base to the up side. It fell so hard a few days later that I doubt any longs made money on it. I wish I had kept the link, but I've read at least two different research reports in past two weeks, saying DRAM production capacity is about double the current demand. When the Asian crisis first started many smaller fabs retooled for DRAM production. Now many of them opting to bail out. But until they do (and completely give up on DRAM forever) the capacity remains in tact at 200%. The way I see it, you can't even hope for any long term up move in DRAM prices until production capacity equals demand. Sun Tzu