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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mkilloran who wrote (13610)	8/18/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Colby	Respond to of 23519

Boy, oh boy, things are getting exciting around here. So, here is what we have on the table: 1. Q3 earnings (or lack there of) 2 .Marketing Partner or sale (the latter seems all but forgotten) 3. Possible Cash problems (only if they burn through $ like they did in the first 2 quarters) 4. Gene therapy (no mention of that but on the threads) 5. Possible fund interest (thus far nothing but level II and hunches to confirm that) 6. Inability of VVUS to compete with PFE (What will happen internationally?) 7. PFE getting pulled (a possibility, but then again so is the lottery) 8. More international approvals (the flickering light in this dark tunnel. Astra and Jansen might have the necessary muscle to compete with PFE) What happens is anyone's guess. I will give my predictions, where they apply. 1.Q3 positive. If not, $5 will be a fleeting memory; one that sparks nastalgia of the good old days when we still had enough money in the stock to cover our comission. 2. I think a marketing partner will be found, but I don't know if it will be by Q3 end (I hope so). Assuming the partner can get scripts up to previous levels, we are talking about 4.7 MM units/ year (15k scripts X 6 units/script X 52 weeks. Keep in mind, if the script number got that high, the actual number of units a year would be higher because of all the sales to the male clinincs that don't get counted in the script numbers, but we'll leave those out.) Depending on the margins, the partner is looking somewhere between $10-35MM/year ($2-7/unit). For a big partner, this doesn't make a whole lot of sense, unless it's Astra or Jansen, who already have an interest in the company. They know the product and more or less have a marketing plan in place. Every company requires a different strategy, but I would think some economies of scale exist here. Otherwise a smaller company is the likely candidate (assuming the get one). I am hoping for one of the bigger boys, but we'll see. A smaller company doesn't make much sense. It takes a little strength to win an arm wrestle. 3. I think their cash problems are mostly behind us. As for everything else, I think the gene therapy will stay in the closet for a while. I think we will continue to get international approvals. Pfe will still be here, although we might see some restricted labeling. With the exception of a marketing partner announcement, I don't expect any significant price appreciation until Q3 end. Until then, we'll probably remain in the fives. JMHO. Sticking it out (hope to be sticking out (i.e. erect) sometime soon), Colby

To: Mkilloran who wrote (13610)	8/18/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: jack w garnes jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Hi Colby, Look you can talk about all these items...But the point of the matter is you may not see any positive numbers til 1999. So why worry about it. All you people are getting up set about things you have no control over...So why worry about it now??? The point of the matter is the management of this company is piss poor...I know it and you know it... What makes you think that anything in the future with this management is going to change???... These reports that VVUS submits don't mean shit...Everybody wants to talk to Nina...she don't know anything....and if she does she is not going to tell you...You nor anybody else on this thread has any control over anything...The sooner you realize that the better off you will be....JG...PS you people worry to much about the wrong things...Really you should not worry about anything...Its only money in this business...Who really cares I don't........