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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Semoreson who wrote (23084)	8/19/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: atxguy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

How do you know they will lose money in the next FEW quarters? They might or might not make money on Q4, depending on the restructuring charge. Q1 will be much better than Q4.

To: David Semoreson who wrote (23084)	8/19/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: uu	Respond to of 70976

dobr: You state: > AMAT will not make money for the next few qtrs; I hope you dont think that you and I are the only ones who know AMAT will not make money for the next few quarters. In fact I believe even the CEO and all these so called analysts have already said over and over and over that "hey you people out there listen to us: AMAT will not be making any money for an uncertain period of time. In fact AMAt may"* lose money!"* So this is a well known fact! You state: > this is worse than 1996 and the price is triple, why? Well 2 simple reasons: 1. Unemployment is at its lowest in over 25 years. And the employed population on average has another 20-25 years to retire. On top of that this employed population is making "good" money and has a high confidence in its future prospects. This very employed population has a long term investment mentality and only thinks of saving for the day to retire happily without relying on social security or a hand out from the government. So they continue sending a good portion of their earnings to aggressive investment funds (via their 401Ks and IRAs) to invest in solid companies which constitute the foundation of US economy for the next century. 2. Inflation is no where in sight and interest rates will continue to fall (or at worst remain at the same levels). And this is true not only in the US but all over the world. Yes, there are problems in Asia but they will be resolved in time. The world economy will depend on US corporations (and especially solid high techs such as AMAT, INTC, etc.). Thus the growth for these type of companies will be tremendous. Net result: Despite the fact that at this time based on fundamental data a company such as AMAT is grossly overvalued, a year or 2 years from now the current stock price will be viewed as a give away! Do not underestimate the employed population's intelligence or savy attitude. They know this and they are acting upon it now rather than later. That is why you see the price of AMAt tripple than what it was in 1996 despite the fact that problems may seem to be worse than they were back then. As you will see any significant drop (perhaps to the high $20's) will immediately be followed by a quick bounce to the mid $30's-low $40's. IMHO if you are a trader then go ahead and take advantage of the situation (that is if you can time the market). On the other hand if you are a long term investor like me, just sit tight and add to your position all the way up to $45/shr. After that just relax and enjoy the unbelievable growth of your wealth! regards, Addi Jamshidi