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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23088)	8/19/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian: Just thought to make a few commets on FLECKENSTEIN's interview! This is just my observation as an old timer and a very boring bull! FLECKENSTEIN:I've been bearish for awhile. No kidding! And I am sure it has been extremely painful for him! FLECKENSTEIN: I think that the root of the reason to be bearish is that we have created not a normal bull market, but a bit of a bubble. And those are rare historically. I always get a good laugh when people say historically! I had a philosophy teacher who used to say: "Today and tomorrow make up what to be yesterday!" Someone has to tell this guy, of course the current situation has not happened in the past! My new born 45 days old daughter could have told him that! In otherwords it is absolutely ridiculous to compare the current situation with any time in the past since (and again) historically there has never been a time that the US economy (and the global economy) were in almost perfect shape and harmony they are today (and yes despite all the problems in Asia). FLECKENSTEIN:"And so we will start to see economic weakness as a function of too much capacity, and not as a result of the Fed raising interest rates." Why is it that some do view things in a one way glass! Yes, too much capacity?! So what about productivity! Technology has provided an environment in which capacity is practically killed by the high degree of productivity. I for one will frame the following statements and will read it everytime I need to have some great laughs! FLECKENSTEIN:"... the biggest area of opportunity for my fund is in technology... world growth is slowing down, there are no drivers, there is no new software coming, Windows98 has kind of come and gone. It's not that big of a factor. WindowsNT is going to be late. You have no hardware drivers. You've got economic weakness. And you've got Year 2000 disruptions. So, technology-we were already seeing layouts by Intel and important companies before the economy got weak. This sounds like a desperate guy who has absolutely no idea (and let me be specific on this has absolutely no idea) what the term technology means to the world growth! And then mixing up various topics from Intel laying off people to Windows NT being late (!), to Y2k problem!! Indeed a desperate man trying to use buz words to make a case for himself. I had to interview a guy the other day and I almost laughed so hard because he was trying to fool me as knowing the latest software engineering techniques by throwing buz words at me. When asked him what the buz words he was refering to really meant he kind of would look at me and repeat them over and over without saying what they meant! It was embarassing at the same time extremely funny. Now I wonder if he was somehow related to FLECKENSTEIN. And when Susie Gharib asked him: Bill, what are some of the technology stocks you're shorting then? FLECKENSTEIN: Oh, stocks, you know, bigger stocks like Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) or Intel, Gateway (NYSE:GTW). PCs, semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, those kinds of stocks. And I for one sure hope he can get a couple of more billionairs like Bill Gates to give him their money so he can go ahead and short these stocks! The squeeze will be as painful as the past and his screaming will be smiliar to his past performance: Like a live lobster being broiled in order to be coocked and served to the guests! FLECKENSTEIN: It's a pleasure. Oh no, the pleasure is all ours! Regards, Addi Jamshidi

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23088)	8/19/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<If this interview contained the best argument that he's got for a bear market, then I think I'll become a raging bull again, effective immediately.>> There is an Indian saying which translates to saying "a person who is destined to be ruined will not heed to a good advice, pay attention to anything that is good for him." hey, it is your money - with a logic like that how can you lose? -g- <<.. worth growth Bill gets with every $1 rise in MSFT, I suspect he doesn't worry about Flakeinstein losing a Million or 2 each day.>> The clear distinction between a $10,000 to $20,000 portfolio hot-shot who posts every so often on SI and Bill Gates is that Bill is not only rich and, I think, he definitely knows how to stay rich. I can elaborate on that, but I doubt if you can comprehend it.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23088)	8/19/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

From Fleckenstein: "So if we had a typical correction back to what is an expensive price, you could have a bear market of 30 or 40 percent" There is probably no point in responding to this, since I think very few readers of this thread could be taken in by this nonsense, but I have to add that a 30-40% correction would give a pe of 12-15 for the overall market. This is with bonds at record low yields, the budget "balanced," and the large cap stocks dominating their respective businesses throughout the world. The last time pe's were that low, inflation was running rampant and roe was in the single digits in corporate america. I am alarmed that Bill G. has any money with this guy, if it is true. I thought he was smarter than that. I am liquidating my msft stock now. ;>)