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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob zagorin who wrote (24759)	8/19/1998 3:32:00 AM
From: PAR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

What is moderately reliable? 50% !!!!! Reminds me of a nurse I once talked to and she was sure that more babies were born on new and full moons. When I asked her if it was exactly on a new/full moon, she said not exactly but probably within the time interval ~1 week before to ~1 week after a new/full moon.

To: bob zagorin who wrote (24759)	8/19/1998 6:23:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

bob, Speaking of signals, here's the Bear Stearns' investment summary: LGND: Staying The Course Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. D Molowa,E Lovell August 18, 1998 David T. Molowa, Ph.D. (212) 272-2722 8/18/98 Ethan T. Lovell (212) 272-9098 Alan P. Meyers (212) 272-6637 Subject: Analysis of Sales/Earnings Industry: Biotechnology BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. EQUITY RESEARCH Ligand Pharmaceuticals* (LGND - 8 9/16 ) - Buy Staying The Course ----------------------------------------------------------------- *Financials in line with expectations, though immaterial to fundamental outlook ONTAK, Panretin Topical moving toward approval **Continued sell-off unwarranted, recommend investors take advantage prior to spate of second half events ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET CAPITALIZATION $333 (MM) EARNINGS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Jun Sep Dec Year Current 1997 $(0.32)A $(0.32)A $(0.35)A $(0.09)A $(1.07)E Current 1998 $(0.40)A $(0.45)A $(0.21)E $(0.02)E $(1.05)E Previous 1998 $(0.42)E $(0.10)E $0.03E $(0.89)E Current 1999 $0.09E ----------------------------------------------------------------- Investment Summary Ligand's shares have continued to drift over the past several weeks providing, in our opinion, an excellent opportunity to own a fundamentally-sound company. We sense that summer doldrums that often depress event-driven names, the adverse psychological environment in small-caps and selling pressure from certain significant shareholders have all played into this phenomenon. Nevertheless, we again stress that the fundamentals of the company are essentially unchanged. In all likelihood, the company's first products should reach the market within the next 6-9 months, driving the company's EPS into the black and, we presume, its share price significantly higher. Panretin has been granted an expedited review, could be evaluated at a November ODAC meeting and, we expect, be launched toward year-end. At the same time, Ligand's acquisition of Seragen has closed, Ligand has responded to the FDA's data requests relating to ONTAK, and the product still appears to be on schedule for a possible approval in late 1998/early 1999. We continue to rate Ligand's shares a Buy, and believe that the company's shares will benefit from the transition to a sales and earnings story.

To: bob zagorin who wrote (24759)	8/19/1998 6:29:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

bob, Here are the comments on products and upcoming events: Panretin Topical On Track Based on the product's November user-fee deadline, we anticipate that Panretin Topical will be reviewed at an Autumn FDA Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee meeting. Given the good results from two separate Phase III trials and the lack of an adequate treatment alternative for KS patients, we believe the product should receive a favorable review. We foresee Ligand being able to launch Panretin Topical early in 1999 using the same niche oncology salesforce that would be used to market ONTAK. Outlook and Recommendation The price for Ligand's shares has dropped off considerably over the past several weeks. While we have lamented for some time about negative investor sentiment towards biotech stocks in general, the precipitous drop in Ligand's price suggests there has been a negative fundamental change in the company story, for which we can find no evidence. Regulatory and clinical activities for Ligand's products continue on schedule, and we continue to believe that the company could reach profitability in 1999 on the heels of two oncology product launches. Based on this positive fundamental outlook, we continue to rate Ligand's shares at Buy and would recommend investors seriously examine the upside opportunity in the stock at current levels. Potential Second Half Highlights: 1. Potential Panretin Topical approval - November 2. Potential ONTAK approval - December 3. Eli Lilly development decision on Targretin Oral and other RXR compounds - December 4. Potential out-licensing of non-US, non-European product rights 5. Other potential collaborative arrangements

To: bob zagorin who wrote (24759)	8/19/1998 6:39:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Merger mania in Europe seems to be heating up again: paradise-web.com Roche of course already has a couple of retinoids on the market (Accutane for acne, which uses iso-tretinoin as its active ingredient, and Vessinoid for APL, which uses tretinoin). LGND has asked the US patent office to invalidate some of Roche's patent claims for 9-cis retinoic acid (Panretin), because of earlier filings by LGND.