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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pete Young who wrote (1532)	8/19/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

"previous fiscal steps have not stimulated the economy." ..this statement really bothers me.. they raised taxes on spending..that is the opposite of trying to stimulate the domestic economy... the lower than low interest rates appeared just to help out banks borrow from Japan and get the spread from the US bonds.. and hope that exports would help bailout their economy...

To: Pete Young who wrote (1532)	8/20/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: Vieserre	Respond to of 1911

A good response. A number of divergencies are apparent and worth considering such as: The continued strength in the stock market in face of incessant calls from all quarters for its demise due to over-valuation, deflation concerns, increasing wage pressures, current-account problems etc. (Interestingly, a recent research report stated that there has been an outflow of domestic funds that has been more than off-set by European and Asian funds which have contributed to the strength of the market) Low unemployment and lack of consumer demand in Asia and high employment and robust consumer demand in the US and Europe (with attendant outflow of capital to the producing countries) Devaluation contributing to inflation in the devaluating countries and disinflation or deflation in the others. A contest among devaluating countries to export in face of a reduction of consumer demand and excess capacity in the affected regions and limited consumer demand elsewhere. IMF imposed restrictions on fiscal and monetary restaints in assisted countries to protect currency values in face of high unemployment, reduction in GDP, consumer hardship and resultant political instability in the affected countries. Low commodity prices contributing to strong GDP growth in non-producing countries and hardship in the producing countries. A strong dollar in face of a substantial trade-deficit and increasing massive US foreign debt. Increased domestic wage income and stock market wealth coupled with increasing bankruptcies and record low savings. Record low gold price in face of record finanical asset inflation and increasing domestic concerns of general inflation due to due higher wage pressures, employment benefits, robust retail sales and housing starts; global currency volitility; and the failure of the Fed to raise rates at this stage of the business cycle as it would ordinarily have done, Each of above and similar divergencies, tied with a common thread, are subject to considerable debate as to the reasons and consequences therefore, but clearly they cannot continue forever as they are cyclical in nature. Accordingly, they would suggest that a global financial sea change is on the horizon of considerable magnitude and importance.