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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (23099)	8/19/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Thanks for you Chart of the July and past BTB. Following is the SEMI article which included the data for the post and my updated spreadsheet data in a seperate post which goes back to 1991 for your reference. Looking at the data we see that we have an upgrade of the previous June's BTB number and your chart indicates that we are rapidly coming to a low. It appears from looking at your chart that Sept. is normally the low BTB month. It will be interesting what happens to AMAT price during the next few months. The upside potential is great but I am hopeful to buy addition shares of AMAT in the low 20's. >Press Room - Press Release North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts July 1998 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.69 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., August 18, 1998 -- The North American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.69 for July 1998, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.69 means $69 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. Three-month average shipments in July 1998 were $1.1 billion. The figure is 11 percent below the June 1998 level, and is 15 percent below the July 1997 level. Three-month average bookings decreased in July 1998 to $757 million. The bookings figure is 19 percent below the June 1998 level, and 47 percent below the July 1997 level. "The July data confirms a continuation of the softening of equipment orders," said Dick Greene, principal analyst with SEMI. "As has been the case since this downturn began, surplus semiconductor production capacity and the Asian economic situation continue to dampen both the chip and the equipment industries." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill February 98 1,369.1 1,233.5 0.90 March 98 1,370.3 1,123.1 0.82 April 98 1,416.3 1,102.1 0.78 May 98 (final) 1,360.8 1,107.1 0.81 June 98 (revised) 1,235.2 932.8 0.76 July 98(prelim.) 1,104.8 757.3 0.69 The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data. The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves. Based in Mountain View, Calif., SEMI is an international trade association serving more than 2,200 companies participating in the $65 billion semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. Visit SEMI OnLine at www.semi.org. ASSOCIATION CONTACT: Mike Droeger SEMI Ph: 650.940.6953 Fx: 650.940.7932 E-mail: mdroeger@semi.org AGENCY CONTACT: Walt Mathews Mathews and Clark Ph: 408.736.1120 Fx: 408.736.2523 E-mail: wmathews@mathewsandclark.com < # # # Paul V.

To: Paul V. who wrote (23099)	8/19/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Threaders, following is the BTB Spreadsheet I referred to previously. YEARS MONTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.94 FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 MARCH 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 APRIL 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 JUNE 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.76 JULY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 0.69 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the SEMI site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul V.

To: Paul V. who wrote (23099)	8/19/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, Re: It is just not worth the risk since the SEMI sector and market is in the 20% range and firmly in the oversold range. Are these the most recent #'s? I had thought the semis had moved up to the 40%-50% range. TIA for any clarification. BK