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Technology Stocks : Apple Computer (AAPL): Analysis and Forecasting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (425)	8/19/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Respond to of 692

Interesting chart pattern, TA's comment? Chart AAPL on Bigcharts at 5 days/5 minutes w/Bollinger Bands. Note what happened on August 13/14. AAPL experienced a sell-off of mild proportions late August 13, but on August 14 gapped up much much higher. The gap-up was then followed by an immediate move back town to a level approximate to the pre-slide level of the day before. The Bollinger Bands form a kind of box in that pattern. The stock then produces a long, tight band of reduced volatility just before exploding on a massive move upward. Yesterday, we experienced a sell-off of mild proportions. Today we gapped way up and promptly gave up those gains to settle at a level we maintained yesterday before the sell off. Now volatility is decreasing and the bands are tightening. Comments? Andrew

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (425)	8/19/1998 12:19:00 PM
From: High Grader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 692

You will note in my analysis that I suggested any penetration of the high for Tuesday would negate the analysis. I expected a retrenchment and am still inclined to that point of view, but any move above the Fibonacci cluster makes me nervous. The Fibonacci targets are not precise, though they are sometimes amazingly close, so maybe a 43.75 top is in order. Knuckle chewing time. We have two things going on here. The flag pattern that broke out to the upside a couple of days ago is bullish, the Fibonacci cluster and short term indicators imply a correction. For example there was a close inside the 21 day Bollinger Band yesterday and overbought signals have been evident for a couple of days now. My personal idea here is to place an order just below the low of the last day and let the market take you in if it is going to. This one strategy has saved me many times, when all the evidence suggests a turn and the market happily ignores the evidence. If the turn doesn't materialize, you are not hurt. As for the Elliott Wave only working on indices it works on any stock but tends to not work well on lower valued stocks which are of course subject to large swings caused by manipulations. Higher priced stocks are more immune to this type of thing. (Hopefully) It also works well with futures, which are even less prone to manipulation than stocks. Plus now that the Elliott Wave can be mathematically modeled by software it makes it far more objective and removes a lot of the "opinion" that made it a hit and miss proposition in the past. If you want to update your appreciation for the Elliott Wave read Bill William's book "Trading Chaos." I found it much better than Pretchter's materials in that it provides excellent strategy and good analysis techniques. As for dates, I don't expect the pullback to be a long one (assuming it is still on) the $38 August 22nd combination is a good possibility, but play the market not the prediction. I will update as the correction unfolds (if it is in fact happening). Remember that this is just a scenario and the market will either confirm it or do something else entirely. When this stuff works it works well. When I get it wrong, then the strategy used, letting the market take you in, is designed to save the day. As always, I am not making recommendations just sharing my own ideas for whatever that is worth. Good luck to all.