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To: HH who wrote (4035)	8/19/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Asia doesn't have to have a huge effect on the U.S. economy for the S&P to crash, does it? There are so many other factors, like Y2K, the end of the restructuring cycle, the end of the tech cycle, etc. Tom

To: HH who wrote (4035)	8/19/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

It's a rare economist that knows how to trade a market.<g> His argument may hinge on the relative size of net export sector in the US economy and that deflationary pulses are "easy" for the Fed to reverse. "Ceterus paribus", maybe. But the situation demands "mutatis mutandis" analysis and valuations employing former assumptions are at risk IMHO. The current drop in GDP growth rates from 5.5% to 1.4% may be "minor" in the long run, but what will another drop in Q3 do to PEs, consumer confidence, commodity prices, revenues, dollar "redemption", a Clinton resignation/lame duck Presidency, potential for profit taking, Oct.selloff fears etc.? I don't believe forward risks, as I see them, are fully discounted by the market. BWDIK.