To: donald sew who wrote (50267 ) 8/19/1998 8:44:00 PM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
Donald; RE:" doji " The XMI.X - Major Market Index , which incorporates a bit more of the NAZ and mid-caps than the SPX, shows a doji after long white candlestick . Sentiment is clearly uncertain , the bias is therefore to sell , and people probably still feel uncomfortable holding positions over the weekend because foreign markets are influencing us unpredictably . The bullish view would be, that after breaking the 14d EMA / DownTrend Line, this is a normal pull-back and consolidation before making further gains; ie., a doji pause and retracement process. The bearish view would be that, this is it, folks : the cat has bounced, and the market is gonna experience -150, -300 DOW days again. Today was probably a good day to make a straddle - if one were to do anything in the face of uncertain sentiment - in response to the doji (or, 'spinning top ' on the OEX) -- as lisa did on the SOX.X CALL + TXN PUT... though playing that sector alone is more risky than, say, the OEX or XMI Major Market : the SOX.X was not a doji today... it was a bearish engulfing pattern candlestick. Most of us are now looking at a pivot , a point at which the market/sector index indicator we are watching would tilt sentiment definitively, one way or the other. As it happens, on the DJIA-30 index that is the focus of your index update, a pull-back to the old, short-term DownTrend Line, and my pivot line, meet tomorrow at ~8522.5 , on a closing basis, on my daily chart. I've always liked the way you express your model as a guitar string (^_^) After being plucked 1000 DOW points, my only expectation is vibrations (not growth ) - so, we have reduced LEAPS, and are trying to accumulate investment-grade equities by nibbling on them when they appear to be short-term oversold, and likely to bounce. -Steve