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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry D who wrote (4198)	8/19/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Henry, There really isn't a comparable indicator to the SEMI's published book-to-bill although that would be a good indicator for the DD sector as well. As I understand it SEMI contracts the gathering and auditing of BTB data through a third party organization (is it Arthur Anderson or one of the big accounting firms? I am not sure). They do so as a member service. However I have come to believe that semiconductor and disk drive backlogs and order rates have been more closely linked then in the past and will likely not diverge until there is a spate of new consumer products. I have been watching the semi BTB, and published PC forecasts such as done by IDC and TrendFocus. I have also been watching disk drive street prices closely. The problem with the latter is that it tends overlook the high end market (corporate network storage). Another difficulty has been the migration to the build-to-order model of business the PC makers have gone to. This has shortened the string considerably and clouded PC order visibility. In talking to the DD makers I am hearing stories of wild swings in back log levels. I am anxious over the traditional PC buying season approaching (back-to-school and Christmas buying) as I suspect it will heavilty favor low performance drives. I am hoping Y2K spending next year will actually spur PC corporate buying rather then depress it as some have suggested. best, Stitch