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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M CAHILL who wrote (1171)	8/19/1998 7:24:00 PM
From: Gwolf	Respond to of 3339

You forgot this one - What is the meaning of life. (eom)

To: M CAHILL who wrote (1171)	8/19/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 3339

Will Al Gore ban paper trades when he is sworn into office?

To: M CAHILL who wrote (1171)	8/19/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Respond to of 3339

"If Year 2000 bug starts Dec. 31 1998 and causes panic?" Unlikely, though there will be many problems on that date. There is quite a bit of software out there that has used "99" as a flag of one sort or another. An example - Sweden just discovered that their nuclear generating plants will have their coolant shut off on Jan 1, 1999, unless this bug is corrected. They are now considering a shutdown the night of Dec 31, 1998, even if they do think they have fixed the problem by then.

To: M CAHILL who wrote (1171)	8/20/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

>> How much does a cantalope melon cost in Japan now? Heard they use to cost $70.00 each. Don't know >>If Japan breaks support and free falls where bottom is? Around 12500 in October-November. If they go below 12000 - No supports, but I think 65-35 it will hold. >>If Presidential cycle correction is here & now? Correction? Like the '29-'33 "correction"? >>If Clinton problems creates bear market that rebounds once he resigns like when Nixon was in office. Clinton is not the problem, maybe the excuse the market needs. >>If Year 2000 bug starts Dec. 31 1998 and causes panic? Panic is guaranteed before 010100, to the same degree that uncertainty exists as to what will actually happen after midnight. There surely will be early signals from systems hiccuping or crashing before 010100. Early '99 programmers will already start making large withdrawals from the system, as they will realize they cannot fix all the bugs in time. Mid '99 panic will spread, and 12/31/99 the world will hold its breath. The stock market hates uncertainty. >>If higher or lower interest rates will hurt stocks? Greenspan expects a big decline, he said so in his last testimony. He will lower rates during that decline to try avoiding the 1929 scenario, but will not succeed. Higher rates are almost out of the question given the US$ position in the currency markets. >>How can the market go to 4000 or 1000 like some suggest? In two-three years. First a crash next month (8/31 to 9/18) to Dow 5500, then two- three months of recovery to the 7000 area, then a severe bear including y2k panic, a depression and some economic chaos, that will bring the Dow to 800-1500 in the spring of 2001. Just look at a chart of the Hang Seng index from 7/97 to date. It's a classic. >>How can the market go to 7000 and then 10,000 before year end? And then 35,000 by 2009, like Harry Dent Jr. suggests? It can't. >>How many times does Dell split before 2009 and do they own IBM buy then? Three times. The market will cut DELL to a quarter of current prices, and Mr. Dell will split. Do not underestimate IBM. They have the best technology for the next millennium. They are not nimble to make money on PCs, but the alliance IBM-MSFT may form again in the future. >>Does MSFT or Intel get broken up? Not in the next 5 years. INTC has already used the last bullet (P-II) and has no ammo. Margins will be cut again and again in the years to come. They are behind in the race to the bio chip. INTEL IS NOT A GROWTH COMPANY. MSFT has yet to market NT to home machines, which is their last bullet. But they have time to shift their business elsewhere. When the "other" business will carry enough mass, then a break is possible. Hey, that was fun. Please do not make a copy of this post, so it'll be wiped out on 010100 and not cause any embarrassment. ATG