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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (469)	8/19/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1301

re:Global crisis prospects I agree, there are two scenarios, deflation, and depression, or higher commodity prices as the world grows out of the glut of commodities. Since Greenspan refuses to drop interest rates, and taking in consideration the fact that the U.S. is still strong (record housing starts announced this week), my bet is higher commodity prices. Greenspan has been notoriously right so far, as well as Warren Buffet. If Buffet is long oil futures, that is a good omen for Russia. So let's say the U.S. continues to grow, overheats like most business cycles and then the U.S. stock market falls because of higher oil prices and higher interest rates. Where do you hide ??? My answer is Russia. Stocks are basically free right now. All this negatism about the ruble and default will suddenly disappear if oil rebounds. It's about wealth redistribution too: America is soaring, its stock market is a bubble, yet the emerging markets are dropping because of the oil glut. OPEC and others seem to be VERY committed to get oil prices off 10 year lows. It is going to be the revenge of the emerging markets. People are buying U.S. stocks at the peak hoping for 20% annual gains. How long until the Dow doubles ??? How long until the RTS doubles ?? The RTS decline has been so fast and on low volume it could double in a week on any good news. My basic view is that OPEC, Russia, Venzuela, Mexico, etc. know they are subsidizing Americas bull market, so I think they will do what it takes to get oil prices up.

To: Real Man who wrote (469)	8/20/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: Ptaskmaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

Ruble devaluation has certainly pushed Mother Russia into a period of increased political instability, with dire consequences perhaps sooner than later? Currently, the traditional right-wing communist regime needs only to block the Yeltsin governments' financial restructuring efforts in the Duma for a few weeks. Could that then trigger an IMF refusal to pay the next installment of 4.3 billion? If that happens, how likely is it to further destabilize the country, and to possibly result in a return to a communist lead government? Ptask