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To: waverider who wrote (1948)8/19/1998 8:30:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
Diamond, when I bought PPG Sep 60 put yesterday its stock price was around 59 1/8 - 1/4. I paid 2 1/2. Today it closed at 59 13/16, and the bid-ask is 1 7/8 - 2 1/8. Say we can buy it at $2 now, that means the option dropped less than the actual stock price (13/16 - 3/16 = 5/8). However, since the price is very near the money (60), I would say the decay is still quite unfavorable to me. In cases where a stock just breaks support (NKE is a recent example), you would see a huge premium increase when that happens because suddenly there is an order imbalance as people try to make quick bucks by buying the put and not enough seller. The extent of option premium delay has got to do with a number of factors, including time, closeness to at the money, volatility, and supply and demand.

Slava - thanks for the turbo tax pointer. It seems different people are using different ways to prepare their Schedule D. I will have to check out a few of the suggestions.

Drillers - today they have a rally. But for a considerable number of them the peaks were achieved very early on during the day. I see a lot of selling 1/2 hour after open and this was expected since selling into strength has been the trend for the past 3 months. However, some of them did bounce back and people are nibbling here. However, we have seen plenty of this one day dead cat bounce. Nothing has changed in the fundamentals other than the weekly fluctuation of the API number. Nothing technical has changed either. Today is just the dead cat bounce. If we see three days in a roll like today, then I will definitely raise my eyebrows and will go long a little. We may see some strength tomorrow morning but if this thing starts to fade and no net buyer emerge for 2-3 hours and the overall market is weakening, I will short them.

Read read Fleckenstein article. So there is this "American Bubbles" article in the upcoming weekend Barron. We don't know if it is making the front page but it sure sounds like a nice little headline title. The market may start to react to this tomorrow. We shall see.



To: waverider who wrote (1948)8/19/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Peter V  Respond to of 14427
 
I've experienced some odd movements in AMZN option pricing, and it has to do with volatility. In periods of high volatility, the prices are high, but as the volatility diminshes, the prices decrease as the volatility is "let out" of the price.