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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (14413)8/19/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: patrick tang  Respond to of 25814
 
With respect to all the analysts, I do not think they have a clue of what this company is doing - they don't know how the products, markets, Symbios, Asian flue, capacity utilization etc. etc. will affect the company.

But having said that, does management have any clues?

Case 1 - Wilf is right, infrastructure building is slowing by the US guys. Bad bad bad, CSCO, Bay and almost everybody else will be hit hard. Economy slows, earning/growth slows, Dow goes down, NAZ goes down, SOX goes down, everything goes down, LSI will go down more. Give this 50% coin toss, don't know whether to true co senior management any more. In this case, if the products are right, when the economy recovers, LSI should lead the pack up.

Case 2 - the other 50%, Wilf is wrong, LSI's US sales slowed is because their chips that go into their customer's products are obsolete. We are heading lower with no chance or recovery even if the economy recovers. We just have a turn-around patient here. Stock goes down more.

Case 3 - management have no idea of what is really going on, but the products are fine. This thing might recover by Sept. Problem now is the mktg VP sales forecast is lousy, but the ground work laid the last 3 years on all the new products were good, they have the right products. If this is correct, management now would be so beat up that there is no way they might even hint that this is what might be going on. Don't know what chance to give this, but this won't be the first time this happened. If this is correct, this is one big buying opportunity. To judge this, need insider info from LSI first to confirm that sales slowdown had indeed been with the US guys, and second, verify from CSCO/BAY/SUN/IBM insider info that indeed they are still building and not seeing slowdown of orders from their customers.

note - trying to start some kind of rational discussions here, anybody with info/analytical discussion, do contribute.

What about the other high end suppliers like XLNX, ALTR etc. Are they seeing any order slow-downs right now?

patrick



To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (14413)8/19/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: BWAC  Respond to of 25814
 
All: Talked with Robert Sisson from LSI investor relations today.
I expressed my disgust with their lack of control over the selective release of todays news yesterday. It is my opinion that we were going down 2+ points on whatever day the news became public. The frontrunners got us into at least 4 point drop. Anybody see those 2000+ August 20 Puts bought yesterday?

Mr. Sisson clarified a few questions on Symbios. Last year sales for Symbios were about 670 million. They were profitable. He indicated about 10% of sales. LSI feels that it will be an important purchase for the future of LSI. Symbios contracted out their "higher end" manufacturing to another company. These functions will now be performed by LSI at the Gresham facility.

It looks to me like this will increase the profit margins for Symbios products. And put Gresham to use.

Regarding Gresham, he said that it will not be brought online until December. A two month push out from the previous schedule. LSI will continue to capitalize costs relating to Gresham until December. These include any start up costs and any testing/qualifying that is being done. There is an Administrative staff already there who's costs are and have been expensed as incurred. Depreciation of the capitalized costs will not start until December.

Mr Sisson concluded by talking about how big DVD and DCAM was going to be. And the outlook for these products is expected to continue to increase.



To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (14413)8/20/1998 12:12:00 AM
From: Jimbo Cobb  Respond to of 25814
 
LSI at $13 would be a John-Deere buy--SELL THE TRACTOR AND BUY LSI AT $13 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course, that doesn't make those $25 shares I've got feel any better !!!!