To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (14413 ) 8/19/1998 9:26:00 PM From: patrick tang Respond to of 25814
With respect to all the analysts, I do not think they have a clue of what this company is doing - they don't know how the products, markets, Symbios, Asian flue, capacity utilization etc. etc. will affect the company. But having said that, does management have any clues? Case 1 - Wilf is right, infrastructure building is slowing by the US guys. Bad bad bad, CSCO, Bay and almost everybody else will be hit hard. Economy slows, earning/growth slows, Dow goes down, NAZ goes down, SOX goes down, everything goes down, LSI will go down more. Give this 50% coin toss, don't know whether to true co senior management any more. In this case, if the products are right, when the economy recovers, LSI should lead the pack up. Case 2 - the other 50%, Wilf is wrong, LSI's US sales slowed is because their chips that go into their customer's products are obsolete. We are heading lower with no chance or recovery even if the economy recovers. We just have a turn-around patient here. Stock goes down more. Case 3 - management have no idea of what is really going on, but the products are fine. This thing might recover by Sept. Problem now is the mktg VP sales forecast is lousy, but the ground work laid the last 3 years on all the new products were good, they have the right products. If this is correct, management now would be so beat up that there is no way they might even hint that this is what might be going on. Don't know what chance to give this, but this won't be the first time this happened. If this is correct, this is one big buying opportunity. To judge this, need insider info from LSI first to confirm that sales slowdown had indeed been with the US guys, and second, verify from CSCO/BAY/SUN/IBM insider info that indeed they are still building and not seeing slowdown of orders from their customers. note - trying to start some kind of rational discussions here, anybody with info/analytical discussion, do contribute. What about the other high end suppliers like XLNX, ALTR etc. Are they seeing any order slow-downs right now? patrick