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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (2250)	8/20/1998 3:15:00 AM
From: michael c. dodge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3247

N.O......Okay, so I can't sleep, either. Is $30M a reasonable expectation for Q3 revenue ??? Is that number on the 25% increase curve ??? If so, then we need an explanation for the other $5M......Maybe all the customers in commodity LCDs are threatening to substitute unless they get a match of the Korean price (in dollar terms). (This and the MOT unilateral price reductions are surmise on my part.) The China plant will have low variable costs......and low fixed costs, for that matter, AFTER it is at capacity.....will it not ??? I do not think these guys are fools or dishonest. I do think they did a good job coming back from the first MOT-shock....which is where I came in. If the business model is permanently changing or changed, then the investment has to be re-thought......(its already been re-priced). We will not know that until Q4 numbers are in ??? This management has (at least the last two years) had good financial controls, has been able to report promptly at the end of the quarter, etc. How could they miss the prospective cumulative effect of order pushouts, cancellation, re-pricing, or whatever it is??? They must have a financial model (budget) which they review and compare themselves against each month. That is Jeff Buchanan's job.....to keep track of that information and advise of its probable financial effects. If they don't have an explanation (not a story), then they do not know what happened to them......even after the fact. How could that be ??? We have more than paid for an explanation. To be explicit, that explanation is as to why TFS' management did not recognize earlier what was happening to the company, and thereby reduce expectations in a gradual and orderly manner ??? And finally, it strains credulity to think that if they could not see this coming, they can somehow see it going away....... And the corollary....if they can see it going away, why did they not see it coming ??? The damage is done......its not so much the money, its the destruction of the idea. mcd