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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Pharmos(PARS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Huth who wrote (1151)	8/20/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Ariella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1491

Dear Richard, I agree with you about not wanting to take things in a positive way just because one wishes the stock would go up. That said, however, I'm not sure of the importance as a single number of the number of prescriptions written because during the recent conference call the CFO emphasized that drugs of these types are launched by aggressive sampling -- free samples, giveaways, designed to get the product in the target group of doctors' hands. It's a reason why the initial sales figures will be skewed -- we pumped up the distribution chain in June and are also spreading the drug through samples, so the first quarter the drug is available will probably show very uneven revenue figures. More important to me is market share numbers because they show momentum and can be quantified on an annualized basis. These seemed right away to be ok and the CFO had said they were building week by week. In the first month alone, Lotemax had captured a 2% share and Alrex a 4% share. If, two months later, after a full quarter on the market, these figures have doubled, we now have a market share that will yield $4.8 million/year in revenues. With yearly cash burn at $6 million, this is a significant step forward and the comment that the CFO made on the call about being able to make existing cash and incoming cash last past the first quarter of 1999 seems probable. As for the stock price, if you compare PARS with other biotechs before announcements are made, the current activity seems normal. Lots of drugs don't make it past this point of development and some people understandably step away until results are announced. My sources in Israel continue to tell me that management is very upbeat about the trial. Perhaps mortality rates have continued to stay very good. Regards, Ariella

To: Richard Huth who wrote (1151)	8/20/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: wolfdog2	Respond to of 1491

Richard, I pretty much agree with your sentiments regarding the significance of the insider purchase and the script data. I wouldn't draw any inferences from the action of the share price, however. You need to look at biotechs as a universe. Strangely enough, even though biotech companies are not in a any way fungible, the group tends to move together. Biotechs are currently in the bargain basement. Take a look at CORR and COB (both with commercialized products) or LGND and ISIP (with soon to be commercialized products) for example If we get a major market decline, PARS could move lower still. I would see that as a major buying opportunity. OT: For anyone looking for another biotech investment, Columbia Labs (COB) is worth investigating. The stock has been under tremendous pressure from the shorts for some time. A dissident group has recently taken a large position in the company. Their express goal is to increase shareholder value. The company has several commercialized products, the most important one is Crinone. COB could easily earn over $1. The stock currently sells for less than 6. Anyone interested should check the SI COB board. Not long ago I wrote an analysis of the company's prospects and posted it on the COB board.

To: Richard Huth who wrote (1151)	8/20/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: yosi s	Respond to of 1491

" 1100 prescriptions on a daily or even weekly basis would be really good news to investors, but if this is the total amount of prescriptions for the (nearly) complete US-market since introduction, it does not sound that big to me." I agree that 1100 Rx written is not much. what is important is how they are growing and if they are written by more physicians, so the information is not complete. And we may need a little more time to get a true picture. It may take longer time than I expected but it will grow. Do not forget this is summer and even in medicine summer can be very slow. People on vacation.etc. "A CFO that is buying the stock is a positive sign to me, too. But only if the investment has a significant character. Sorry, but USD 5'000 is not a big deal," Again it is true. but the CFO just recently came on, he is going to get option in future etc. Even a small purchase is +. "stock coming down further on." The stock is down I can only speculate. But a good reminder is that betwee PARS getting approvable lettet and getting final approval the stock also came down only to make a brief new high. GO FIGURE. (It was a no brainer that FDA was going to approve.Yet people sold...) " pink glasses " Hope is eternal PARS is in no risk of folding up. they got revenues. and those revenues going to grow the question is in what rate. Once that is in they will get an appropriate PE untill then it will be undervalue,as it is now, and once news hit will get overvalue, hopefully just as we realize undervalue and keep on buying we will know when it is overvalues. GOOD LUCK