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Pastimes : Religion on SI -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (222)	8/20/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 1542

I know, it is getting quite interesting. I have been reading some of the reports referenced by Chip and posted in the Asia Forum.... I agree with some of the concepts, but when I think through the whole thing, I keep saying the US dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger, and that would mean in turn, lower interest rates (in the US). The scariest part may be if the report on the Japanese pension funds being bankrupt turns out to be true... Yes, the Asian economies and others will not be consuming as forecasted earlier, but they become a tremendously inexpensive source of manufacturing for US companies. Look at the example of DELL.... consumption in Asia may not continue as in the past or as originally expected, but his production costs go lower as the local economies explode..... On top of that you have Europe on an "upswing", hence sales for DELL and maybe others, will continue to be positive. In the communications industry, Lucent is another example that perhaps will not see as a rapid growth as once expected, but the point here is that the need and demand for basic communication infrastructures is so large around the globe that perhaps a slow down may actually be for the better as I do not believe that a single company (or two, or three), would be capable of supplying what is needed around the globe, without any kind of significant backlog. Once again, the bottom line translates to this: The US is proving to be the best place in the planet to invest, due to the stability and safety it provides, the demand for the US dollar will not abate, on the contrary, it will increase. That translates (to me at least), that the Fed will have to lower interest rates, sooner rather than later. Besides, whatchyougonnadowithyourmoney, badboy, badboy, no viable and relatively safer place than in the US Dolar. Short of some truly devastating event, there is no other place, and if indeed such devastating event does take place, well then.... I will see you in the soup kitchen of the local mission, what the hell, we'll start a new religion or something crazy along those lines.... Z. "When everyone is insane, It's folly to be wise." Paul Samuelson (Nobel economics)