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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lin luo who wrote (1610)	8/20/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: nukid onWallSt	Respond to of 2578

Dell will be 115 or 120 or 125 by the end of Friday 8/21..OPTION EXPIRATION... What is your target???115,120,125

To: lin luo who wrote (1610)	8/20/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2578

Elliott Waves is fundamentally wrong! That's what I meant. Karl Popper argued that a theory is only scientific if it has testable propositions. From what I can see of Elliott Waves they can make anything look like the wave-pattern they want. It's not really falsifiable. Therefore it is not scientific. Psychoanalysis (Freud, Jung) etc. is also very interesting and occasionally correct but it is non-falsifiable and therefore by this criterion non-scientific. On the other hand what I'm trying to do is amplify the weak signal that shows that the trend in the time series is changing direction. It is certainly testable - I just need to get it sorted out well enough to propose a useful test. The rough ones I've done show correlations with the correct signs between my buy/sell signals and the subsequent changes in price. Bollinger Band analysis also seems useful and seems tied to statistical theory but I don't know how it would be formalized so it could be explained in terms of standard time series stuff. I got DELL monumentally wrong so far this time around. There are three possibilities: 1. This is just one of the proportion of cases where the technique fails. All I claim is it works more than 50% of the time to say that there is a correlation with the right sign. 2. There is something wrong in my analysis to date to show my method is useful. 3. I will yet be shown to be right.