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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (1965)	8/20/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Puts and shorts on the big money market banks are, umm, money in the bank! IMO. Shorted JPM this morning as well as I think it still has a gap to fill down re the takeover runnup. From Briefing.com re semi's: "SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS AND TOM KURLAK. The debate rages on. Before the open Thursday, Merrill Lynch semiconductor analyst Tom Kurlak downgraded Intel (INTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) shares due to the continuing glut of supply in the semiconductor industry. INTC was downgraded from "long-term accumulate" to "long-term neutral" and TXN from "long-term buy" to "long-term accumulate." When the Asian crisis hit in October, semiconductor stocks took a dive. Over the past two months, however, semiconductor stocks rallied sharply as many investors have come to believe that the worst is over for this industry. Not so, says Kurlak, who has been bearish on the group for a while. He says the glut of high-end chips remains serious. This is were the big profits are. Supply and demand conditions may have improved for low-end chips, but that is not as important. Kurlak has been correct on the fundamentals in this sector. Profits are still not rebounding and no improvement is in sight. Yesterday before the open, LSI warned of lower profits, and after the close, National Semiconductor said sales and profits would be lower. The market has pushed semiconductor stocks, particularly INTC, up over the past two months, but there really hasn't been any fundamental support for the move. So far, semiconductor bulls have been able to strut, based on the stock moves, but yesterday the SOX semiconductor index plunged 12 points (4.6%). It may drop further again today. The SOX index is still up from 235 in mid-June to 257 before the open today, but if these gains are to be maintained, the fundamentals for the business will have to improve soon. It is hard to keep stock prices up on expectations that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Semiconductor investors have come to dread Mr. Kurlak's comments, but his focus on the fundamentals is worth considering. It is also interesting that he would make the downgrades a day after the SOX index plunged. If he had made these downgrades into a rising market, he might have been seen as stubbornly trying to talk the market down. Today, these downgrades will have greater credibility."