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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (23155)	8/20/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Duker	Respond to of 70976

Jach, I on board with the analyst commentary. Boring story to follow: In the Summer of 1996, ML got a new semiconductor analyst (Mr. Stern -- has since "moved-on"). I was at a boutique, value-shop in Boston. No, seriously, value in Boston! ... amidst the shining towers of momentum and growth: FMR, MFS, and Putnam. Our ML AE called us to set up a meeting to "discuss the group." Stern's calendar was wide-open ... who would have wanted to own AMAT in the Summer of 96? Certainly not the Boston growth shops. He looked at me (the stock was at $22 and change ... BEFORE the 2:1) and told me the "next stop was book value" (roughly $13 at the time ...). We "backed-up the truck." Three quarters later: Everyone loved it. Stock eclipsed $100. Lesson? Sell-side analysts have absolutely no interest in making "investment" decisions. Gunnar Miller was the first of the SemiCap guys to plug AMAT. He had already missed a significant (albeit volatile) move -- low $20's to low $30's is "payment enough for me to wait." Frankly, I was hoping that there would be more pessimism after the AMAT call. Unfortunately, we have not gotten back to the levels of Summer of '96 in AMAT ... but if you look to LRCX, believe in the management, ... Another story entirely. --Duker Sorry about the spelling mistakes.