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To: Gary Ng who wrote (62900)8/20/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: Hal Rubel  Respond to of 186894
 
iMac Impact

RE: "Hal, ...How many iMac you think will be sold in 12 months ?"

IMHO:
Commercial, Institutional, and Personal sales: At least 450,000 units.

Plus, publicity & 97,000,000 ad campaign could lead to another 100,000 regular Mac unit sales (and a strenghening of the walk in retail structure.)

Additionally, next years K-12 sales will be a very impressive follow through to this year's sales. Networking and group activity management capabilities are phenomenal. (Example: A classroom needs only one floppy drive for a room full of networked machines. All machines connected to a printer or external floppy are transparently connected to all other computers connected to that printer or floppy, and all this at the OS level. No special cards, no special software, no trained technicians. File sharing allows instructors to call up any student's desktop to update files, distribute assignments, monitor individual activity, and take over operation to render help.)

Apple's most recent market share has been 3.8% of the total PC market. By January, Apple's share could become as much as 7.8%.

Never fear. This is just an expansion of the Mac side of the market. This is not growth at the expense of the Wintel side. At its best, I believe, when 1) Laptops Computers, 2) Desktop Computers, 3) Server Computers, and 4) Showcase Computers (iMac) are hitting on all cylinders, the maximum Mac market is only 9 - 12% of the total PC market.

An important side benefit for the Wintel crew is that the very existence of a healthy alternate PC solution has favorable antitrust implications for Microsoft and for INTEL. An intact 90% market Monopoly is money in the bank.

Hal