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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (23177)	8/20/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, I believe the gurus, especially the TA types, say we've been in a bear market for a couple years now, that breadth has been atrocious, ... Flecky has probably already seen the best conditions that he's going to see. With the market, what goes down, often goes right back up. It's more probable (72% to 28%) that the market will continue to trash Flecky. I seem to remember that the argument for staying invested in the market continually is that if you missed only 10 days you would have drastically reduced your return. Yes this is a widely quoted and highly flawed study. Generally, the biggest up days and the biggest down days occur very close to each other in time. If one is not invested for a big up day, it's fairly likely that same investor will also miss the big down day and vice versa. As is said, "statistics don't lie, Statisticians do." FWIW, Ian.