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To: Zardoz who wrote (16279)	8/21/1998 7:18:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116914

still curious if Hong Kong has any autonomy left though..do you know? think that France also has high exposure to bad loans.. read that Germany's unemployment is going down..don't see how Germany can afford to go into recession and will possibly fight it tooth and nail.. doesn't it sound as if everything is hinging on Japan? wouldn't it seem that big global money is waiting just for a little action by Japanese and then will start pouring money into Japan so the whole world doesn't collapse..or am I being too simple in my thinking?

To: Zardoz who wrote (16279)	8/21/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116914

OK, the global financial system is collapsing as scripted. EMU and USA is what's left. $64000 question now is how the politics of economic alliance (or war) plays out between these two. Unlike Japan, I doubt Europe will sacrifice itself to a monetary system bound to fail anyway, holding onto US debt come what may and even in the face of need. I suspect the Euro will very much become Europe going on its own. I doubt we'll ever see your $265 gold, even as deflationary forces spiral out of control. If $265 gold does come, it will also go in an instant. P.S. The mark is doing well considering Russia. What the market hasn't priced into the dollar yet is yet another Latin American debt crisis, The last one, in 1994, resulted in the worst one year loss for U.S. bonds ever. This one will occurr while every other major industrialized country is experiencing a similar crisis at the same time.