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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (62959)	8/21/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 186894

OK, Paul, here's specific data. Here's a quick little study on EVERY ONE of Kurlak's rating changes on INTC for the past 4 years plus. Opening prices are used for both INTC and the S&P AFTER Kurlak's call was made. Anyone who wanted to follow his calls could have obtained those prices. It begins from when he lowered his rating from 2-1 to 3-1. For those unfamiliar with Merrill's rating system, the first number is the short term rating, the second number is the long term rating. 1=buy, 2=accumulate, 3=neutral. (There are 4 and 5 ratings, of course, but no one ever uses them, unless the prospect for investment banking business is absolutely zero.) date recommendation open price S&P 500 29 Jun 94 lowered to 3-1 14.9375 446.05 21 Dec 94 raised to 1-1 15.375 457.24 19 Jul 95 lowered to 2-1 32.5 556.58 6 Oct 95 raised to 1-1 31.5625 582.63 7 Nov 95 lowered to 3-1 34.4375 588.46 31 May 96 raised to 1-1 36.9375 671.70 22 Aug 97 lowered to 3-1 92.25 925.05 15 Apr 98 lowered to 3-2 78.1875 1115.75 20 Aug 98 lowered to 3-3 87 1098.06 I have data that goes back about another decade, but it is another party's proprietary data that I have no right to freely distribute. But the trend is the same. Three conclusions that I draw: 1. Kurlak has indeed well outperformed the market with his Intel calls, and has also outperformed a buy-and-hold Intel shareholder, assuming that sales of Intel went to other stocks and not to cash. (Given the mostly institutional clientel of Mr. Kurlak, that assumption is valid.) 2. The only call that could be called remotely 'wrong' is his long term rating call back in April of this year. And given that this is a long term view, not short term, the jury is still out. And if revenues and earnings do not recover, it will prove to be a good decision. 3. The market has performed damn good over the past 4 years, as has Intel.