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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (2442)	8/23/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

INTERESTING! - PART III - Y2k conference; on INVESTING: yardeni.com - Sunday (INVESTING): (rough transcript): Yardeni: 'Disruption of world economy - 70 % change' 'Analogy with oil crisis '73 'Drop GDP 4-5 % in the US 'Recession: 12-24 months 'Serious documents found e.g. Government agencies: GAO, FAA, ... 'Disappointed by lack of global leadership on this issue 'Progress is too slow 'Gov regulators - all admit that they do not have all the information necessary; e.g. SEC 'SEC may accelerate disclosure Y2k problem - logical steps: 1. Lot at risk. High dependency on computers 2. Naive optimist to believe that will be solved in time 3. Most important step: all that fails fails at the same time Never had a situation like that before. 4. It will not be business as usual. 'I am studying this on a daily basis. ______ Philip ... ING Barings report: 'Scenario based on Dutch assumptions '20 % of industrial will loose 2 months of production first part of 2000 'consumption reduced .25 initial loss of consumer demand. 'business services sector: additional demand - additional demand of 15 % '2 % slowdown in export 'In total slowdown of 1 % because of Y2k in 2000 'So expecting a mild recession in 2000 '.5 % slowdown in imports 'interest rates drop _______ Dennis Grabow 'Key to understanding Y2k: embedded systems remediation. 'ES remediation is different from IT remediation Example: 'How long does it take to remediate: answer from a manager of a chemical factory: 'we are number 58 on the vendor list to visit us' 'Other area to be concerned about: foreign trade. Difficult to test it. In FT there are about 12 different organisations involved. Also: sequential steps: paper and material have to flow in sync; otherwise it stops.

To: John Mansfield who wrote (2442)	8/23/1998 7:18:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

INTERESTING! - PART III - Y2k conference; on INVESTING: yardeni.com - Sunday (INVESTING): (rough transcript): Yardeni: 'Disruption of world economy - 70 % change' 'Analogy with oil crisis '73 'Drop GDP 4-5 % in the US 'Recession: 12-24 months 'Serious documents found e.g. Government agencies: GAO, FAA, ... 'Disappointed by lack of global leadership on this issue 'Progress is too slow 'Gov regulators - all admit that they do not have all the information necessary; e.g. SEC 'SEC may accelerate disclosure Y2k problem - logical steps: 1. Lot at risk. High dependency on computers 2. Naive optimist to believe that will be solved in time 3. Most important step: all that fails fails at the same time Never had a situation like that before. 4. It will not be business as usual. 'I am studying this on a daily basis. ______ Philip ... ING Barings report: 'Scenario based on Dutch assumptions '20 % of industrial will loose 2 months of production first part of 2000 'consumption reduced .25 initial loss of consumer demand. 'business services sector: additional demand - additional demand of 15 % '2 % slowdown in export 'In total slowdown of 1 % because of Y2k in 2000 'So expecting a mild recession in 2000 '.5 % slowdown in imports 'interest rates drop _______ Dennis Grabow 'Key to understanding Y2k: embedded systems remediation. 'ES remediation is different from IT remediation Example: 'How long does it take to remediate: answer from a manager of a chemical factory: 'we are number 58 on the vendor list to visit us' 'Other area to be concerned about: foreign trade. Difficult to test it. In FT there are about 12 different organisations involved. Also: sequential steps: paper and material have to flow in sync; otherwise it stops. 'Talked to a food manufacturer: will not be ready in time. So they ask what they really have to offer to the market; and then only remediate what they really need. 'When you start to replace controllers: sometimes you have to buy new equipment. 'Very concerned about the tranportation industry; heard very litte from railroads. 'Market: Multiples are stretched. Gold discussion. 'Y2k companies: Some are going to do well. Lack at revenue currently. You can see that the money is not spent at the moment. This will change.