To: Hal Campbell who wrote (3261 ) 8/21/1998 9:14:00 PM From: Ed Perry Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17679
>> But not sure at all how it will all work << Because of the uncertainties in just what kind of business will evolve from the turnaround effort, I expect to see a lot of surprises in information flow and efficient pricing. We are also dealing with a tight lipped management structure - this could eventually be a good thing. One way of dealing with this is to take your queues from the price and volume action itself. This tracking is not a substitute for hard headed business analysis but it is a alternative to a fuller information flow when it is not present. This poor information flow is also a characteristic of the bottom area of turnaround situations. For example, the last two minor movements from the low of Aug 7 give evidence of price and volume activity of a nature not seen since last Nov 97. Not that there is any business forecasting ability in these activity movements but that relatively speaking, there is a change in the tempo the tenor of trading of these two movements. Specifically, in the context of low volume, there is appearing the beginning of a "zig-zag". This contrasts with slump and sideways drift which had occurred from April 98 through July 98. The "zig-zag" represents the active interplay between two opposing points of view. It has forecasting ability when it occurs in a possible base building area. As an observer, I read this queue as the possibility that information is leaking from the business sector and is being transformed into active market orders. If the "zig-zag" continues, then there is a likelihood that something is up (you know - "loose lips sink ships" effect). If, the current movement peters out, and then there is once again drift or even more slump, then more time will be needed if one has further interest. Ed Perry PS: focus and concentrate the entire story could be right in front you.