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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (16348)	8/22/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116823

Bruce it all depends on your horizon (mine at least three years) Most important point for me is whether bottom in hand. (all bear markets in old paradigm end) i think that bottom was reached in January and I was accumulating ever sinse, The second point than many on this thread made repeatedly that Bull Market in USA equities must end (that would also pull dollar down) before Gold Bull begins in earnest..I am willing to wait...I do not understand Gurus that are willing to wait for 2-5 years for say Intel to double but discount ABX or PDG or others (that had beat earnings estimate convienciebly and slushed their costs) Do I think that Bull is about to be killed and Gold Bear is soon to end...of course! How soon? I do not presume to know but than again I am in no hurry and you may be.... U.S. Stocks Outlook: Pessimism on Profits Drags Down Market; Seen Falling New York, Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered 9 percent below its July record this week, and many professional investors fret that stocks are headed lower. ''This qualifies as something other than a bull market,'' said Hank Herrmann, chief investment officer at Waddell & Reed in Overland Park, Kansas, which oversees $26 billion. Herrmann doesn't believe stocks are entering a ''bear market'' -- which usually accompanies a 20 percent decline in prices -- but he isn't ruling one out. He's not alone in his pessimism. Three stocks fell for every one that rose today. The average closed down 77.76 at 8533.65, after falling as much as 283 points at midday. Political and economic turbulence around the world is the problem. Latin American bonds plunged, raising concerns about a global financial meltdown and a drop in U.S. bank earnings. Russia's prime minister warned that that country's financial crisis will worsen -- also increasing the chances of a global financial collapse. And the dollar surged against the yen as Japan's banking crisis showed no signs of improving. U.S. corporate earnings rose a meager 3.4 percent in the second quarter of the year -- down from 11 percent a year ago-- as company after company reported that dwindling demand in Asia undermined their results. What's worse, almost every day securities analysts lower their estimates for third-quarter operating profit growth for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, according to First Call Corp. Today analysts are forecasting 4.9 percent growth, down from 5.2 percent as of Monday and 7.3 percent at the end of July. Economic growth, housing construction and employment remains robust in the U.S. Yet many investors forecast a wave of cold air. ''Don't forget, no one rings a bell when you're in a dramatic slowdown,'' said Jeff Petherick, a Detroit-based money manager with Loomis Sayles, which oversees $70 billion. ''If the economy is so strong, why are so many companies struggling with earnings? And imagine what happens to corporate earnings if the economy does slow?'' Baby Bears Petherick specializes in shares of small companies -- the hardest-hit stocks in the market. The benchmark Russell 2000 Index is almost 20 percent below its April high. Small stocks typically thrive when the economy rises out of a recession -- not when growth is slowing. Petherick said that while many in his universe are bargains, ''small stocks are not going to do well in a difficult market.'' Small companies are more likely to do the bulk of their business in the U.S. than megacap multinationals. Yet many small companies supply large international companies that have canceled orders. The pain, of course, isn't limited to companies in the Russell, which have a median market capitalization of $739 million. As of Thursday, the average New York Stock Exchange stock was off 29 percent from its high while the typical Nasdaq share was off 39 percent, according to Salomon Smith Barney equity analyst Jeffrey Warantz. Market Props For the week, the Dow rose 108.65 points, or 1.2 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 18.43, or 1.7 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index, dominated by computer-industry shares, did the least well, rising 7.42, or 0.4 percent. Market averages have been helped by huge gains in the nation's largest companies. General Electric Co., the world's largest company and 4 percent of the S&P 500, is still up about 22 percent this year. Microsoft Corp., which makes up 3 percent of the S&P, is still up 71 percent in 1998. Of course, not everyone is downbeat. Many investors and analysts who complained all year that stocks were too expensive now see some bargains. They say investors have become frazzled by recent terrorism and U.S retaliation. U.S. military aircraft bombed suspected terrorist sites in Sudan and Afghanistan yesterday. ''You're seeing the psychology impact stocks more than earnings,'' said Robert Bissell, president and chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management, which oversees $44 billion. ''People are mesmerized by terrorism and emerging market problems. They don't know what's to come. It's unsettling.'' One bullish sign: Investors have been accumulating Dow stocks all month, even as the average has declined. An analysis of buying and selling patterns shows that while some investors sold shares, most transactions were by investors willing to pay more than the prevailing price for the 30 stocks in the index. Bissell can't say what's to come Monday or Tuesday, but he believes stocks are headed higher. He has been buying bank shares, including Banc One Corp., the Columbus, Ohio, bank holding company.