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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: La Traguhs who wrote (4212)	8/22/1998 12:26:00 AM
From: Dale Stempson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

LT, I believe it is difficult to "gauge the threat" until we are assured the product is reaching the shelves and/or the boxmakers. As GM pointed out, there appears to be significant hype associated with Castlewood. A couple of comments however: As far as SyQuest is concerned, if the Orb soon reaches the shelves (with decent quality, at estimated price points, and meets published specs), SyQuest will likely be in even more trouble than they are today (if that's possible). The Orb will impact SparQ, which is currently SyQuest's only hope at this point. SparQ sales have already flattened at low volumes, forcing SyQuest to take drastic restructuring steps and desperately search for "white knight" financing. As far as Iomega is concerned, I believe the Orb impact would be minimal. It would certainly grab some market share from Jaz and a little from Zip, but perhaps a significant portion of that would simply be replacing what SparQ was already taking, (thus, SyQuest is the big loser and Iomega loses a bit). I believe Jaz will continue to have the advantage of name recognition and a large installed base. One thing to keep in mind is that it appears the total market for the 1-2 GB capacity removables is smaller than many had expected. It was certainly smaller than what SyQuest had hoped for the SparQ. I expect the market to continue to grow, but if you add Orb to the list (Jaz, SyJet, Sparq), and then take into account some potential customers now considering the reasonably priced CD variations currently available along with incredibly cheap fixed drives, than you just might end up with a split market where Castlewood, SyQuest and Iomega will all be sharing some degree of pain. Regards - Dale