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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (60227)	8/22/1998 3:08:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

SB- In referance your comments about Dell moving down stronger than the Naz at the close, and the significance of this (movement)..... You could backtest this, and find that over its history, Dell has had numerous days where, at the close, it fell flat on its face....What has been the relative significance of these moves to long-term investors in Dell. Nothing. For every argument, "well, Dell was down big at the close....what does this mean"...one could advance, "well, Dell has been up 11 pts (and change) this week, and the Naz was down 7 pts this week"....there is a more always a more relevant argument (to short-term movements) and that is, what is the long-term trend (and why)... Also, I don't see how Dell (closing weaker than the overall Naz, or the Naz 100) can give you an indication whether or not a bear market is upon us or not....Again, if you would backtest, I am betting that you would find no statistical correlation between bear market and individual stocks (specifically Dell) being down at the close (at a great rate than the overall market)... As you are well aware, few people have been able to adaquately call a bear market....The logic goes that more people have lost money (potential gains) trying to time (getting out of) a (supposed) bear market than those who have made (saved) money by getting out at the right time.....Chuzzlewit steadfastly represents the long-term view of investing, to which I, and many on the thread ascribe....I don't know many people who have made more money timing Dell, then just holding it long....BTW- Just holding it long is a helluva a lot easier (you'll have more free time on your hands!).... If you are really concerned about bear markets, I would point the conversation in the direction in about all other area EXCEPT short-term price movements of a (particular) stock...I think it is worthless as a point of debate....I would be glad to indicate to you what I think are worth (debate), if you wish... If you are really concerned about Dell's (long-term) stock price, there are a number of pts. we can debate (but short-term price movements would be a worthless exercise)..I would be glad to indicate to you what points I think are worth (debate), if you wish.... If you are really concerned about Dell's short-term stock price movements, I and others (I'm sure) are happy to play that guessing game with you.....Frankly, flip a coin...(Heads up 5 by next Friday, Tails down 5 by next Friday)...or use the dart-throwing monkeys that the Wall Street Journal trots out.....I can tell you this (based on what I know now to be true), I feel certain that Dell will be (significantly) higher in 6 months than now, and, if for some reason it is not (significantly) higher in 6 months, I would feel even more certain (based on what I know now) that Dell will be (significantly) higher in 1 year from now....You see where I am going with this!?! So all I can do is wish you good luck if you really want to time it....unfortunately, I think this is the best (advice) that anyone else can offer you as well... BTW- Having not read all the posts on this, I hope I haven't repeated what someone else has posted or restated the obvious...If I have, well, I guess that is the function of a thread anyway... No disrespect intended....and good luck with your investments...