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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Norton who wrote (210)	8/22/1998 6:58:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Alan: Re: "Why would Bob issue a buy signal before two of the weakest months, historically speaking, in the market? I am guessing here, but his model probably said 'buy'." His timing model does not take seasonal factors into play. Yes, his model did day buy>" "I know that Bob tracks historical trends. He has often cited previous market events and related them to current situations. Is this the difference between a 'Buy'' and a 'Gift Horse' opportunity?" Yes, there is a difference. "Gift horse buying opportunities" were plenty when the trailing P/E on the S & P 500 was not historical highs. A large part of this bull run from ember has been due to P/E expansion. But there seems to be little juice left here if we are at the historical P/E highs unless you adopt the new era way of thinking. Moreover, the earnings growth is not as strong as it once was in this market. In Brinker terminology, a "buying opportunity" is nothing more than an attractive entry point to purchase equities (my definition). A "gift horse" is and was a no brainer. At this point in the bull market with record high valuations, it is questionable whether a "gift horse" will present itself again. "I can't time the market - I'll leave that to Bob. But I do believe in risk assessment. At this point, I am happy to be on the sidelines watching the volatility in the market. The risks are just too high for me to jump in this time." Yes, if your risk tolerance does not create a personal comfort level to buy equities, you must do what you think is right for you. But by saying you are "on the sidelines" are you saying that you are 100% in cash?