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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19452)8/22/1998 7:45:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Ike; RE:" IMF "

Third world will not have IMF to bash for much longer, Ike - they are now down to their reserves...

biz.yahoo.com

search.news.yahoo.com

What's your read on the DAX-30, Ike ?

Traders are looking at ~5030 supports; the 200d EMA is ~4925; and my chart has fibonacci lines around the 4700-4750 area. I've got the EuroWEBS EWG supports around the UpTrend/fibonacci Lines at the 21 +/- 1/4 area.

However, I started to add SAP to my core today at ~52; my next buy level is 48-1/4. LU looks interesting here; indeed, most of the Tech bellwethers... MSFT/SAP INTC/AMAT DELL/AAPL EMC
CSCO/LU TAN/BBY
are now being viewed as defensive stocks in this environment: The question of "exposure to Asia" has evolved to "exposure to currency devaluations".

-Steve



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19452)8/22/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: j g cordes  Respond to of 50167
 
From Debt to Desperation in Japan

By Sandra Sugawara
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, August 21, 1998; Page G03

TOKYO, Aug. 20-Early today, Nobuo Shibata, the 48-year-old president
of a small sheet metal company, was found slumped in his car next to his
brother. A hose attached to the tailpipe had sent deadly exhaust fumes
wafting into the car.

A suicide note found in Shibata's pocket said, "We apologize to all our
employees for the slump in our business."

As debate drags on in Japan's parliament about the best way to pull the
country out of its recession, the evidence of Japan's dramatic decline
appears daily. Struggles like Shibata's are reflected throughout the Japanese
economy as bankruptcies and suicides rise, and as increasing numbers of
people who cannot repay loans go into hiding to avoid the stigma of
bankruptcy.

Corporate failures surged 35.7 percent in July from a year earlier, to 1,710
cases, and are expected to continue rising, according to Teikoku Databank,
a private research group. Personal bankruptcies, which hit 70,000 last year,
are expected to top 100,000 this year, according to bankruptcy attorneys.
They also estimate that about 100,000 debtors are in hiding.

In 1997, about 3,600 Japanese killed themselves over economic problems,
according to the National Police Agency.

Hideo Yamada, a leading bankruptcy attorney, said an estimated 1.5 million
people are now unable to repay loans and are struggling to avoid
bankruptcy. Some turn to relatives or loan sharks -- who often have ties to
organized crime groups -- for cash, in hopes that their finances will improve
and they can repay the money soon, he said.

But with the economy sliding further, many of them may have difficulty
doing that. Indeed, earlier this week Economic Planning Agency Minister
Taichi Sakaiya said the government's assessment of Japan's economic
condition might worsen after the release of July economic data.

"In just about all the regions, the economy has become worse," Sakaiya said,
according to Reuter News Service.

And Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa acknowledged that the bailout of
major banks earlier this year did nothing to alleviate the credit crunch, which
is making it even harder for companies to get the loans they need to do
business. That is expected to accelerate the rate of bankruptcy filings.

The Japanese Trade Union Confederation, Japan's largest umbrella
organization of labor unions, is so concerned about the impact the credit
crunch will have on jobs that it recently decided to funnel 20 percent of its
strike fund to guarantee loans taken out by companies that employ union
members, according to Kyodo News Service.

In the United States, bankruptcy is sometimes seen as a form of creative
destruction. Many American entrepreneurs blithely recite the failed business
ventures that preceded their successes. Not so in Japan. "To have to
borrow, there is a sense of shame. And once you borrow, there is a
widespread feeling that you must return," said bankruptcy attorney Kenji
Utsunomiya.

In fact, companies often try to get rid of employees who have declared
personal bankruptcy, said bankruptcy attorney Hideo Yamada. The
companies fear such people will sully the firm's reputation, he said. "Legally
they can't fire a person because of bankruptcy. But if he gets calls from
credit companies at work, then they can use that as an excuse to get rid of
him," arguing that it is disrupting work, Yamada said.

So instead of filing for bankruptcy, many people pack up their belongings in
the middle of the night and move to another part of Japan. People from
cities move to the countryside, where they try to get work as day laborers,
while people in the rural areas try to disappear in the cities as waiters or
janitors, according to attorneys. Some eventually get caught, particularly if
they get sick and must apply for national health insurance, or if they need to
enroll their children in school. Others become weary of being away from
their family and friends and return to file for bankruptcy and face their
creditors.

"I hear that those small construction company owners, some of them have
run away because they have so little work, but they still must pay their
employees," said Kazuharu Ezawa, an executive with the Construction and
General Workers Union.

One former owner of a sporting goods store in Shikoku, a small island south
of Tokyo, ran away when he realized his store had failed. In a recent
interview, he explained that he was afraid of loan sharks. In addition, he
said, "I was scared of being labeled a bankrupt person."

He changed his mind after his daughter, whom he had contacted, convinced
him to go to a lawyer. Since then he has successfully discharged his debts
through the courts and is a taxicab driver. He wrote a book on the ordeal,
because he said he wanted to convince others that it was far better to use
the bankruptcy courts than to disappear.

However, he used a pseudonym on the book and refused to allow his real
name to be used in this story.

"I don't want my neighbors to know I was once bankrupt," he said.

Special correspondent Akiko Kashiwagi contributed to this report.

c Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19452)8/22/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
?/!-- The bears see it coming and the good news just leaves them in a lurch? Why

( Steve asked me a question, actually this was suppose to be an answer to his question, I just went tangent , my wild thought process took me to places which are forbidden however I thought my friends like to read my wild thoughts so I will answer Steve after I come back from my dinner)..

Lot of models are wasted to dust as people get whipsawed going nowhere, back in 1981 when we were just beginners in this game of 'futures' we have seen a lot of non-sense come and go.

I tell you only one thing works 'back the winners'- it is this reason that the markets follow the ''regression charts'' of laws of 'demand and supply'. I have coined this term and call this market as 'cup winners cup final market' look at the CSCO's, Dells and the INTC's, the MSFT's, EMC's ASND's if one cannot make a decision to back stocks like GE and the ones I have highlighted and maintains his positions in cash than markets are not a place for him. If you cannot let your money work in the markets the money will just not work for you, a good trader puts his money to work that is point one and the most important point of the callous markets. Markets award people who risk their money, sidelined 'coward money' belongs to 'undecided minds' it is neither here nor there so the returns are also dismal. Undecided money has stayed undecided from 5200 level in July 96. The European Fund managers were the clear casualty, some rare species are also seen in our neighborhood expecting that crash which may come like second coming of Christ. Look at my following post--

''To: +steve susko (19396 )
From: +IQBAL LATIF Wednesday, Aug 19 1998 2:38AM ET
Reply # of 19454

Time and time again I have maintained a line very different to CW on SI- I am happy that markets have come back rather strongly my level of 1118 is intact still, I would think we would go and test 1130-32 area if 1118 is taken out relatively easy. However I remain convinced that we will see a lot of back and forth between 1130 to 1070 area this is exactly going to be like the 900-990 area- even a move higher will bring us back for simple reason market will search for that evidence of third quarter before it moves in any direction. I will always look for opportunity to buy puts above at higher levels and sell some out of money calls to play this back and forth movements.''

Now if any one works on these parameters you can imagine that any volatility is nothing but a noise, German markets and French markets sold off like crazy but look at the movement of DAX from 3783 to the highs of 6174 we have seen this 2391 point movement without any single touch of 200 days MA, same is the case with CAC -40 where you can see a movement from 2920 to 4600 level without any touch of the 200 days MA. You can go back to my posts and find that when composite was moving like crazy I did lamented many a times that this huge gap or divergence between the index and the 200 days MA need to be filled. Now when I look at DAX and CAC or FTSE and compare these indexes with my DJIA or SPX or OEX the relatively successful symbols of markets I find that US markets have made their way forward based on much more puritanical and fundamentalist approach, now you will ask me Ike what is this more fundamentalist and puritanical approach? I will take you back to my no non-sense easily understandable model the 200 days MA model-- simple nice and easy no- non-sense approach to know markets, what does it tells me-- the first stark difference in CAC DAX or FTSE is that the Dec 97 onward movement have never seen a test of 200 days MA, my winners like PSE OEX SPX DJIA have progressed relatively with a more subtle back and fill approach. I can see the reasons of this movement in DAX but I also see a strong rebound from 3900 on DAX, rather I would be a buyer of French and German market future indexes if I see some stability in Nikkei and HIS. I am not worried on the economic impact of Russia, it is not an economic problem it is a strategic issue and if it erupts we are dead anyway- who will care for markets any way if Russia slips into quagmire or oblivion. The loans to Russia are fully provided and with kind of natural wealth they sit on the loans are nothing, with a land mass as big as Russia the natural resources and huge Oil potential can easily take care of its debt repayments, restructurisation of debt along some `Brady' style bonds will be possible due to share income potential, a country with a potential of becoming next Germany has debt of 170 billion and 10,000 nukes. I think we should see this issue being resolved by intelligent Europeans alongwith US to take Russia out of doldrums. Ofcourse it is not the breaker but we need to watch out closely.

When my point 7864 on DJIA or 900 on S&P was a pivot we had seven months of base building on and around my pivot of 900 -- during this course of back and fill I can see that my indexes touched the 200days MA averages atleast 7 times, it was in those days that I termed my coming move as a ''bhumbo'' I could even see it coming and interestingly enough I was able to pin point the first move extent also to 1130. This was a unique thing on SI and I take great satisfaction in pinpointing a move in face of every one else being short, now I see a similar pattern during last five months on my pivot line 1077 or 1070 again a level which I have determined through a corresponding relationship with 8600 level on DOW, I match it with PSE and my other winner OEX , I am just seeing a making of a lethal move whichever side it will break- this pivot of 1070 and my level of 1055 which I have mentioned atleast a dozen time is a very important support, I have a feeling that before we move up to test that 10,074 level the phase two of Bhumbo 2, a may be test of 8100-8200 is a slight to moderate probability, like the one we had on this grid of 7864 to 6900 on Oct. these tests wash out a lot of weak hands the transfer to strong hands is one important event for a market attempting new highs like the one I expect at 10,074 on DJIA. The band of extreme volatility is between 1070 and 1018, the outside chance of a 860 point drop from 8600 pivot would take us to nearly 7740 this corresponds to the 10 percent drop event oriented from 7864 to 7128 in Oct. One needs to know his levels even if you are trading intra -day-- like movements from yesterday were restricted within my band of 1055 bounce and a close above 1080, the way the market bounced off 1055 one could easily see that futures were trading at a discount of cash, the stocks were not being sold. Unless we see some big time selling in the CSCO's MSFT's IBM's INTC's GE's I just don't see how we are going to crack this 1030 bottom-- these shorts need to know that already market is driven by 50 leaders-- take out these fifty leaders the market can correct to a 1000 point in no time. however, the problems is that unless these leaders become laggards, if their earning momentum is dented or going forward picture changes why should I sell them? Something I got for almost nothing cannot be sold if it is even down 10 $'s, it is this proprietary ship and love of 50 leaders which does not let the core break, otherwise we are right in middle of a worst kind of bear market, look at RUT, Transportation, Oils, commodities, Insurance, all these NASDAQ indexes are languishing much below their 200 days MA not only that they have been beaten and their P/E's are on average 15, it is the leaders 40-45 P/E's and their weight in winning indexes that overall market P/E looks very high, but this is the magic of compounded return of equities which makes these stocks so pricey.

Unless the picture of big 50 changes, this test of lows is going to be --if ever it happens-- an event driven test like say devaluation announcement of China or failure of a major Japanese Banks it will not be something directly related to market, however the chances of this are quite possible as IMF approaches towards its limit of 'packages' due to limitations of reserves. I think we will see that during the course of the year any such moments would be opportunities to get into stocks which have so far been quite pricey and no one is giving them away. This event driven phenomenon needs to treated differently if MSFT is sanctioned or we see unexpected rise in inflation or change of macro-economic fundamentals.



This is clearly a two tiered market one is the winners trading at huge multiples other is the laggards going lower making new lows imagine if you are a part of that portfolio which is the laggard segment of the market, limiting ones investment universe to selective stocks is one important lesson, I have always tried to remain fully invested and highly leveraged around the core portfolio I have developed painstakingly over number of years. Like I was investing in French markets back in 1995 buying stocks like UAP, BNP, Alcatel when they were really low and the market was not going anywhere but I knew that market will in few years go forward and take out new highs as St. Gobain, Alcatel and LMVH make their mark in introducing new style of 'compounded growth' and work on

If you look at my profile where I am invested with my core, if you are not selecting or unable to select the right equities that is the first mistake, I have and will remain invested in this market to the tone of three times leverage, the markets can be milked during these days of extreme volatility, at lower supports buy calls and at resistance's buy puts unless RUT takes out 416, transportation takes out the 20 days MA from bottom and Nikkei moves up to 15750 on two closing basis.