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Technology Stocks : OBJECT DESIGN Inc.: Bargain of the year!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward F. Horst Jr. who wrote (2227)	8/24/1998 4:06:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 3194

Yeah... You pointed out a key issue with regard to ODIS' mindshare. The fact is that ODBMSs are not associated with the so-called Internet Boom/Phenomenon whereas Portals and Network-stuff suppliers are the very instruments of the Internet. ODBMSs were already around 10...15(?) years before the Internet exploded thanks to the WWW standards, hence they suffer from their initial ''rocket-science'' look: remember their solution in search of a problem nickname? Just think about the real story behind Jasmine: July 20, 1998, Issue: 1515 Section: News & Analysis Reality bites Jasmine Polly Sprenger Before XML, the last time object databases got this much attention was when software megapower Computer Associates International Inc. entered the market. Its Jasmine database, company officials claimed, would revolutionize object technology. "For years, object technology has been long on promise and short on reality," CA's CEO Charles Wang said last December when the product was announced. "That's why we teamed up with Fujitsu [Ltd.] to jointly develop and globally market this breakthrough technology." Speaking of reality, CA could use a little dose itself. The Long Island, N.Y., monolith with the "buy-'em-and-bleed-'em" mentality didn't develop anything with Fujitsu. According to Santa Clara-based Technology Development International Inc., Jasmine was developed through a partnership between Fujitsu and TDI itself, and then quietly sold to CA. TDI continues to support Jasmine with new features and upgrades; about one-third of its 85 people work full time on the product line. So anyone expecting to get top-notch support for CA's in-house product might do better by contacting the technology experts directly. Contact TDI at (408) 330-3400; www.tdiinc. com. Copyright r 1998 CMP Media Inc. As you see, TDI is the brains behind CA's Jasmine ODBMS. They were able to co-develop an ODBMS with Fujitsu but, due to the lack of acceptance for this technology --in the early days, were somehow forced to sub-contract it to an IT heavy like CA. Hopefully, the story of ODBMSs will look pretty much like the PC's. After all, what's currently driving the PC industry's growth? It's the Internet! That's why DELL, Compaq, ACER and the like will be able to sustain a double-digit growth for another couple of years. And likewise, PCs had their (first) golden age in the 1980s, 15 years ago. Yet, the problem with ODIS is that this company seems to thrive in a vacuum... It doesn't benefit from such a ''sexy'' competition as the portals's (excite vs. lycos vs. yahoo vs. infoseek vs. you name it!). So, I think that if VSNT would be taken over for a lumpy $100+M by some IT heavy, it'd show the world the true value of ODBMSs. Further, CA'd prove very helpful if it discloses a 40-50% growth for its Jasmine offering. Regards, Gustave.

To: Edward F. Horst Jr. who wrote (2227)	8/24/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3194

Ed: Here are some comparison figures: (Rev Growth Based on previous quarter / 12 months ago) COMPANY Rev. Growth Price/Sales AMZN 316% 20.3 AOL 52% 11.8 NSCP 9% 5.1 YHOO 205% 91.5 --------------------------- CSCO 35% 13.3 NOVL -4% 4.5 --------------------------- ODIS 39% 3.5 I think one can at least conclude that ODIS is not over-valued relative to the other stocks.

To: Edward F. Horst Jr. who wrote (2227)	8/24/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3194

Discussion of growth figures in previous post The growth figures are for Most Recent Quarter over the corresponding quarter 12 months previous. This tends to flatter ODIS, since growth last quarter was above-trend (I estimate the trend growth in revenue around 22%) ODIS has a cheaper P/S than any of the other companies, but has a growth rate that puts it near the middle of the pack. I think it is safe to conclude that ODIS is valued more attractively than NOVL, NSCP, or AOL. Cisco's growth rate is about the same as Object Design's, but its P/S is over 3 times higher. This has a lot to do with Cisco's superb margins. As ahhaha has correctly pointed out, Object Design's net margin has been too slender (never better than 8%) and much too unpredictable. Remember that 97/4 was awful: a loss of $1.5M, and 98/1 was a break-even quarter. I think that, to support a higher valuation, ODIS needs to increase the revenue growth trend way above 22% (at least to 40%) and also to fatten its margins (8% is not enough: 10% would be a nice target for the current quarter).