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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lin luo who wrote (1616)	8/23/1998
From: lin luo	Respond to of 2578

--------OT------The Great Market Transformation First, it was the little gambler called G.S. who tried to make some quick money to support his Russian ventures by dumping his dirty money on the weakest spot in Asia. Then, these tiny countries collapsed financially, and dragged down Hong Kong and Tokyo markets, later the Russian's, which has no fundamental strength, felt the heat and melted. Now, it the Latin America's turn. One by one, all the markets used to be called great opportunities are disappearing, and left alone the the greatest of all time which people initially thought nothing left to exploit. Euro might be the second best. So, it is obvious that there are not many foreign bulls, especially people from alien countries. They so used to see their own stocks go to the toilet, even the PE is 0.00001. How can a stock like DELL sustain a PE at 80. Americans must be crazy. The whole thing was triggered by G. S., but is aimed to happen. The stronger China, a perfect economic conditions in the States, relative strength in Europe, and the most important: the technological innovations in information and biology wake up the smart money to shift their interests to large hi-tech and drug stocks, such as DELL, MSFT, CSCO, LU, AOL, PFE, SGP etc. The strength of these stocks eventually will lead NASDAQ to surpass DOW in a foreseeable future. One by one, these stocks will become the biggest stocks on earth. They will become the markets. All kinds of market theories will merge to one to study these stocks. China got hit too this time. However, their currency yuan is protected and their markets are domestic which means no real money outflow. China will become strong enough to compete directly with US and Europe. This will create great opportunities for companies like DELL and CSCO. The rise of China will sustain these company's growth for years to come. P.S., if China can not become strong enough, I will go back to teach them how to gamble DELL options. Yep! That will work to support my claims. :-)

To: lin luo who wrote (1616)	8/23/1998 1:59:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Do you still remember your NSM? I made money on NSM going up from 11 to 14 and selling in the 13-14 range. Now it's back at 11. I can't see what your problem is there. In each previous boom cycle this year Dell peaks first, falls a little and then begins the big ascent. This time it coincides with post-options and general worldwide market weakness. I suspect that in the worst case scenario I will only lose a few dollars a share. However, my TA method you scorn indicates that this peak we are passing through is stronger than those previous initial boom cycles. i.e. this is much more of a global maximum and less of a local maximum. So yes I will be following any moves in the DELL very closely. Made a nice profit on Peapod in the last week as well. The time series model I have in mind for the stock-market is somewhat similar to that for global temperature series which I use in a paper that I am revising currently. We have succeeded in detecting a signal of carbon dioxide in global temperature using time domain methods. This is something that climatologists believe is impossible and hasn't been done before (some people have used frequency domain methods). The TA method I am using is a rough and dirty statistic/ indicator. I could estimate a more sophisticated model but I don't want to run my econometrics program through the data every day. If I was a fulltime professional manager I might. This method works on a spreadsheet.