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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7043)	8/22/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 22640

SF, that's really crazy! But it didn't say how to carry on if one has not made tons of money in the foregoing bull market. To add some aspects on the economic slowdown and tight-connected market slump in U.S market, there are other signs of fundamental weakness: -premiums on mergers declining -mergers postponed or renegotiated, connected with decline in earnings (not only CIEN) -difficulties in financing acquisitions (see CSTM) Even if the actual number of broken deals is not increasing, but it is the appearance in media which accounts for bad mood - and decreasing market value. In Europe the declines in stock indices are much steeper, like the German Dax which lost 6% in one day without any sign of support and already off 20% from earlier (July) highs. The situation is a bit more toxic than is US, as german economists consider the mix of weak economic performance, jobless rates in the double digits, no inflation and no credit/money demand a "liquidity trap". Consequently the bond yields are at all time lows (10-year Germany: 4,2%) as even the public sector does not drain any liquidity from the markets. The EURO convergence criteria did some additional slashing of public spending without easing the tax burden, bringing the budget (gross) deficits under 3% of GDP along with a primary budget surplus. Therefore, european economies are in "contracting mode" and, in contrary to classical economics, public investments not being carried out are not replaced by private investors. For myself, I can afford a 60% decline only if I either close all positions or take a massive hedge against the S&P or core holdings. The difference is, that I'm not as bearish, putting the low range of the S&P at 800 rather than 500. Christian (Funny: When I came back and watched an account, I just found out that I bought in a small position of UBB at 19 1/8 - at today's low... and even that deal contributed to a nice dinner.)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7043)	8/22/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 22640

Latam Banks downgraded Samstag, 22. August 1998, 12:57 Uhr Merrill stuft Lateinamerikas Banken ab New York (Reuters) - Das US-Brokerhaus Merrill Lynch hat die Bonit„tsbewertung fr den Bankensektor Lateinamerikas zurckgestuft. Merril Lynch- Analyst Rodrigo Quintanilla begrndete die Maánahme am Freitag mit sich abschw„chenden makro”konomischen Indikatoren. Die Perspektiven fr die Bankenbranche in Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile, Kolumbien und Mexiko h„tten sich angesichts der m”glichen Abschw„chung der makro”konomischen Indikatoren verschlechtert. Dazu trgen auch die globale Schw„che der Kapitalm„rkte und eine "pessimistischere Haltung gegenber allen Emerging Markets" bei. fgc English (AltaVista) Saturday, 22 August 1998, 12:57 Merrill downgrades Latin America banks New York (Reuters) - The US broker house Merrill lynch downgraded the ratings of the banks of Latin America. Merril lynching Analyst Rodrigo Quintanilla justified the measure on Friday with weakening macro-economic indicators. The perspectives for the bank industry in Argentina, Brazil, Chile,Colombia and Mexico had worsened in view of the possible weakening of the macro-economic indicators. In addition also the global weakness of the capital markets and a "more pessimistic attitude towards all Emerging Markets" [contributed to that]. Christian