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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (20)	8/22/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: jayhawk969	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1073

Richard, Your prescription, that I endorse for a portion of one's portfolio, is not a momentum play. Obviously many of us have lost twice on biotechs, one the drop in value, and two by being out of the market where the gains have taken place. I have started repositioning a portion to OSIP BTRN and SIBI, primarily to spread the risk/opportunity. However, I am not above a momentum play, or shorting stocks that are going to come down. Haveing said that, I am interested in the stuff that is hard to pull from a 10-Q or K. I can see the cash, evaluate the financial position and burn rate. The harder part is to understand the science, the pipeline, the likely or projected timing of major events, and...the estimated likelihood of success. I invest in biotechs because I believe that we are in a fundamental scientific revolution that will rapidly reshape the healthcare/pharmaceutical industry. I am now diversifying my biotech exposure because the risk is one of science, leadership and financial acumen. It is not easy to finance as startup and create a success before the well runs dry. A company like Seragen won the battle(at least Ontak is highly likely to be approved) and lost the war. I am watching AGPH closely for a potential bounce. I would expect LGND(yes I am very concerned about its potential dilution) and ISIP to bounce if there is a September rally. Some of the February option plays are dirt cheap. J.D.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (20)	8/22/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: jayhawk969	Respond to of 1073

Richard, This is one problem with the T/FIF portfolio..... while it is composed of deeply discounted promise, it will be competing for investor attention with high-quality, whomped-on stuff like INCY...... Speaking of: biz.yahoo.com J.D.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (20)	8/22/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: John Metcalf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1073

re: making suggestions: I'm one of those investors who has avoided suicide watch this year by holding some late-stage companies like SEPR and ADRX. Though I've been quiet about it, I have some early ones like SIBI also. "Quality company on sale" could encompass a couple approaches to an attractive risk/reward ratio. For example, BCHE gets a favorable rating from low risk, at the expense of lower reward potential. Lamivudine for Hep B is coming to market. Unfortunately, the first approval was ignored because it happened in depressed Philippines. As a profitable entity, BCHE will be a survivor, with rights to its own discoveries and those of Clinichem. Earlier stage companies with capital have acceptable risk (to me) if they can survive without having to go into a bear market for funds or negotiate partnerships from a position of weakness. There are many reasonable investments in potential ten-bagger land: MLNM, VRTX, GILD, CEGE, SEPR -- a long list of these in second and even third tier. Vertex is on this list because it has money. I don't see sufficient reasons to believe in its eventual success.