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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (1617)	8/23/1998 8:57:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2578

Ah Luke- (I say that like Seinfeld says "Newman"! My teeth are clinched) <g> <DELL has topped out. The action in the stock over the last 3 days confirmed it. Heavy vol on the down days and a classic double top. > Over these many months, you seem to use TA when it supports your arguments, and drop it when it does not....Several TA's have come on the Bull thread and said that recent movements supported the stock going significantly HIGHER. Who to believe? (Them or you <g>) If someone wants to use TA to invest long-term, be by guest, personally, I don't see it as very helpful.... <This tells you that many own this stock at VERY low prices. These holders won't hesitate to dump it...> What? Logically, long-term holders have been increasingly rewarded time and time again for holding long-term, and neglected any dips in the stock....More than ever, there are an increasing number of Dell shareholders who can tell the story about "the one time I sold Dell, and it rose anyway, and I had to buy it back at much higher levels"...Let's face it, Luke, it would take a major breakdown in the stock, similar to Micron's swoon, to scare long-term holders into selling the stock....As Dell's last quarterly report shows (and as Chuzzlewit likes to say)...This company has NO PROBLEMS (I guess one could argue that the need to hire 200 people a week represents a problem!)..Granted, Dell can not afford fall asleep at the wheel, either...But there is no evidence that they are, or will do so....There is much more evidence to support that their flawless execution will remain quite high, vs. any sort of breakdown. I know you are predicting Dell to breakdown similiar to Micron a couple years back...This is because using the two as a comparison, and you (falsely) see PC's as pure commodities...As long as you believe this (and invest based on this), you will be losing money... Micron/Dell, the comparison is a terrible one. <<If you're smart, you'll take your profits. >> No way, Jose... <<The ride to 40 (presplit of course!) will be painful for many die-hard L-T holders.>> Keep plugging away with the emotional scare tactics, Luke...someone, somewhere may sell based on it! Good luck with the REST of your investments, my (usually polite) arch-enemy (said in jest!)

To: Lucretius who wrote (1617)	8/23/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Hi Lucretius, Still pumping out your doom and gloom stuff, I see! Seems to me you've been saying this for months: DELL has topped out. The action in the stock over the last 3 days confirmed it. You were also telling us a few months ago that Dell was canceling a bunch or orders from it suppliers. Ay what point do you admit that you were incorrect and give it up? You begin to remind of Ahab in search of Moby Dick -- or in this case Michael Dell. Here are some points for you to consider: Dell has the best ROIC of any stock I've ever see. Dell has fabulous positive cash flow. Dell's cash conversion cycle is a thing of beauty. Dell's growth is showing no signs of abating, and many analysts are beginning to talk about this being the end of a difficult pricing environment, as evidenced by Compaq and others finally getting their inventory under control. So if you're still buying puts or shorting the company it had better not be on fundamental grounds, because this is one superbly managed company that is hitting on all cylinders. TTFN, CTC