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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3226)8/22/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7342
 
>> John, I think you're right on all counts, and I think the market agrees with you since the price of CIEN is still higher than it was when the merger was announced <<

CIEN was above $50 when the merger was announced.

>> Given all of the CIEN bad news, I would expect the stock to be trading around $20 if the market did not feel an acquisition was in the offing. <<

Possibly, but I think CIEN's technology is worth more than $1.8 billion.

>> All of CIEN's problems appear to me to be of a short-term nature. <<

True, but oh the problems! One after another it seems like.

>> If its true, as you and Craig and others agree, that the merger is really a technology purchase, then the merger will go through. <<

I'm not sure that's what I was saying. I think CIEN's technology is a big part of the asking price, but losing a $100 million+ order is not a small thing. It's the credibility factor that bothers me most. At the present time Ciena management cannot be relied upon in my eyes.



To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3226)8/22/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Respond to of 7342
 
Here is the most likely scenario IMO. The merger will go through, but the conversion rate will be roughly .60 shares of TLAB for each share of CIEN. I expect TLAB to rebound to around $75, which would put CIEN at around $45. I think that's more than a reasonable price to CIEN shareholders, because the cost of the merger would work out to roughly $4.8 Billion in stock. That would leave current CIEN shareholders owning 25% of the combined company.

TTFN,
CTC