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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (24892)	8/23/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

David, Now you are losing me a bit here. <<I believe wave 3 of A will begin this week, and will drive the market through the 1055 support once and for all. Wave 1 of A lasted 4 weeks, and shaved 150pts. off the S&P futures. Wave 3 of A will certainly exceed that performance.>> Indicates you are looking for the smash sooner rather than later. <<you'll find that where we are right now in this current downturn matches up with mid November '29, and Early September '66. >> <<You'll note that the oscillator became greatly oversold at these points in time, with rallys following>> Indicates you are looking for the smash later, rather than sooner. Unless you are referring to the last stab on the downside before the "bottoms" developed; it is tough to tell from the detail on those charts. The striking difference here is that we have only sold off 12% or so from the top and yet have reached close to a historic low in the summation; to me that implies a resilient market. And this oversold condition implies that we get a pause in the action for at least a month or more before any more serious action on the downside occurs. And that may very well only be a retest. Mid November '29 resulted in rally action for 5 months; early September '66 resulted in a test of the old highs two years later. I am not firmly convinced one way or another as to what happens from here and appreciate examining any evidence from you or anyone else for clues as to what the heck is going on. I find it suspicious that so many respected advisors are and have been (correctly) bearish since mid July, and that the summation is now so oversold. If all their followers have sold and are and have been selling short, then who is left to continue this trend at this time? As anyone seen or heard of a bullish advisor lately? Vitas