HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE A WOMAN SCORNED
The non-apology apology made by Mr. Clinton on Monday night may have
satisfied tens of millions of Americans and ten congressmen, but one who was
reportedly not pleased was Monica Lewinsky.
What's this displeasure have to do with the financial markets?
Absolutely everything and more. Mr. Lewinsky's wrath and fury may finally turn
upon Mr. Clinton and open the door to impeachment proceedings. While this
conclusion may sound frivolous, the consequences of her latest testimony may
impact the fate of Trillions of US dollars in market capitalizations. To date,
Wall Street has rebounded from collapses in Indonesia, Japan, Hong Kong and
Russia. It has shuffled off worries throughout the Pacific Rim, conflicts in
Africa and Kosovo, the threat of nuclear war between Pakistan and India, and
renewed fears of an Iraqi showdown. But Wall Street and other global financial
markets cringe at what Ms. Lewinsky may hold in store for the US Presidency.
The fact that a twenty-something pudgy and love-struck female could lead
the U.S. financial markets into a serious bear market and possibly bring the
economy to its knees is such a wildly insane notion that we do not expect many
to take this commentary very seriously. We gasp at this psychotic episode in
America's legacy, but must not so easily ignore it. In earlier editions of Dr.
Doom, we had warned about this matter and were widely condemned for warning you
about the consequences. This time, the stakes are higher, because the
possibility of a global market meltdown is more real than ever before.
Ms. Lewinsky is set to testify before Judge Starr's Grand Jury on
Thursday. It has been reported by the Thursday morning Washington Post that Ms.
Lewinsky was surprised and disappointed by President Clinton's regretful speech.
She had expected him to apologize to her, her family and others who were caught
up in this unfortunate scandal. That this irks Ms. Lewinsky confirms that she
has never risen above the self-indulgent world in which she lives. Dr. Doom is
not partisan in his condemnation of both Mr. Clinton and Ms. Lewinsky. That
their dawdling dalliances have engendered mountains of media attention is a
testament to the irresponsibility and recklessness of their characters and the
society in which we live. What matters now is not that whether Mr. Clinton
continues in his deluded world, but whether Monica will turn fink and announce,
"No, Bill, we did more, during our 18-month romance, than either of us cared to
admit, over the past seven months." Should she do so, the omniscient markets
will begin to tumble.
Timing in the market is everything, but in this case, Clinton's timing
of what is rapidly becoming a widely condemned Monday night speech, could not
have come at a worse time for him. If Ms. Lewinsky should contradict Mr.
Clinton's testimony about the depth and breadth of their sexual relations, that
may be the turning point in the testimony of others, who may soon be recalled by
this Grand Jury. It may lead the markets to test a new bottom in this
correction.
At question is how numerous Clinton gifts to Lewinsky were requested by
Ms. Curie, the President's personal secretary, to be returned for her
safekeeping. This key point may help Judge Starr prove an obstruction of justice
charge. That may open the door to other crimes, at other times. From our
sources, we gather that this 1,000-page report is scheduled to arrive in
Congress soon after Labor Day. We have recently discovered that Monica's name
doesn't appear until roughly Page 400.
Until now, Mr. Clinton has maintained his "teflon identity" through the
cagey obfuscation of events that generally point elsewhere: to an associate or
another, who has fallen on his or her sword for Mr. Clinton. We have always
wondered how long Mr. Clinton could maintain that charade, in light of the ever
rising body count.
Already, key Democratic leaders have voiced their disappointment and
chagrin at having supported this President, after having been deceived over the
past seven months. Many have remained silent, not because they are embarrassed,
but because they are gauging support in their congressional and senatorial
districts. The next 60 days are crucial for the Democratic Party. The lame-duck
president now has both wings clipped. Democrats facing re-election will quickly
voice their approval or distance themselves from Mr. Clinton, depending upon
sentiment in their districts.
One also has to ponder the accuracy of those approval-rating polls. In
our own research, throughout the Internet, we found an alarming imbalance, not
in favor of Mr. Clinton remaining in office. While 300 or 1000 individuals may
represent a politician's idea of "representative" or accurate, we found the
MSNBC poll far more ambitious. At last count, MSNBC had tallied 141,464 voters,
or 1400% of the amount polled by traditional sources. Of those voters, 66%
announced that Clinton is not fit to remain in office. Only 34% thought he
should stick around. MSNBC's computer prevents one from voting more than once,
so we believe it is far more accurate than the televised polls, which appear to
serve some propaganda purpose.
You can quickly measure how grave this matter will become by observing
whether or not the Party will rally behind Mr. Clinton. The calls for Mr.
Clinton's resignation have not been limited entirely to zealous Republicans.
Democrats, not running for a public seat, have begun whispering that he should
step down. While he vacations in Nantucket, a storm is brewing. The final blow
to the Nixon White House occurred when a group of angry Republicans, led by the
late Barry Goldwater, visited Mr. Nixon and informed him that he lacked their
support.
Will history be repeated? Don't be surprised if it does. Before this
month is out, the tide will have turned against Mr. Clinton or again been
stemmed.
That the balance of our market portfolio's values hang on the words of
an unemployed, distraught former intern is not only reason enough for this
article, but also a concern that must finally be taken seriously. We do not like
to lose money in the markets and worry that unfolding events may exceed our risk
tolerance level for remaining bullish in the equity markets.
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