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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (2441)	8/22/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: coop	Respond to of 12623

Did anyone ntice that TLAB was trading down a little after hours

To: pass pass who wrote (2441)	8/22/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Kat	Respond to of 12623

Thank you for the information. It is technical but one statement stood out --- the upgrade to 90 channels -- that's the key I was looking for. Most SI members are the greatest, even when things are difficult ! Kat

To: pass pass who wrote (2441)	8/23/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 12623

>>Again, as I said, soon CSCO and ASND will put ATM packets or IP packets directly over fiber, without converting to SDH frames and eliminate all the overhead. That's going to be the beginning of the end of TLAB. That's why TLAB offered 1:1 to begin with.<< This makes sense to me. I remember reading months ago that this was CSCO's plan, an ingenious way of producing a new product, which would cost less and control some of the standards. I was surprised that CSCO let CIEN slip away to TLAB. I gathered from this that CSCO could still have an alliance with TLAB/CSCO, and/or there were other options available to it...other companies with 16 channels or greater. I also thought that possibly the greater than 16 channel products were "early" even though there was demand for high bandwidth infrastructure, but also not that great a demand because the WCOM/MCI deal was taking forever, AT&T were dragging there feet, etc. The only companies laying out infrastructure quickly were the smaller ones, and they were doing well with the 16 channel products. Anyways, I thought CSCO "still had time to develop options" if CIEN was not going to be their partner. Also, TLAB must have know about the good ol' boy network of LU/AT&T and also how the major telecoms like Sprint, MCI, etc. like to stay with a major end-to-end solution provider. CIEN, even though they had an advanced/proven product were a little green when considering an "entire system". Hence, the TLAB buyout; get the experienced telecom connections through TLAB and also some of the missing technology to provide a "complete solution", even though CIEN's contribution was the major contribution to the system. TLAB, with all it's experience, must have known precisely what CIEN's relationship with AT&T and MCI, etc. was all about. So, the questions I'm left with are: 1) Who will CSCO join up with to implement the "ingenious standards/technology strategy" they have? (if not CIEN) 2) Who will TLAB join up with to get the WDM technology? (if not CIEN) 3) Who will supply the small telecom companies that are building their own fiber optic networks (if not CIEN). These small flexible companies have the potential to get a big head start on their big competitors. I also, don't believe that CIEN's technology is in question with the latest news. If it were, we'd be hearing about it from CIEN's other customers. IMO, I think the thread is missing pieces of the puzzle concerning the plans of the large Telecom service providers (AT&T for example), and an accurate feel for the demand for the products of the technology providers (CIEN for example). Also, we need to know more about the plans of CSCO, ASND, and a bunch of other players in this complicated game.