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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (460)	8/23/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

x y zebra, Again, So long the ability in being productive, and continuing creating wealth, the above is relative to such ability, the key is that the resources that go to service the debt, do not "crowd out" the private sector, i.e. ability to borrow, or high interest rates That is a "Pollyanna attitude", in that it assumes productivity will not decrease, GDP continues to expand, interest rates do not rise, and that debt service does not increase. It is a grave mistake to extrapolate the recent past into the indefinite future and plan accordingly. All outcomes must be considered -- the prudent assessment of a "realist", not "defeatist". It is not possible to avoid a recession, if not sooner, then later. Each expansion sows the seeds of its own contraction. Furthermore, any corrective action is frequently counter-productive, at least short term, as it will exacerbate the situation -- i.e., the medicine will taste as bad as it always does. I agree that general inflation is not necessarily a threat, nor imminent. However, the low world price of oil, in particular, is not sustainable. Too many economies rely on oil export for their economic well-being and internal stability. Beyond that, one should never forget that a sudden oil supply disruption is a ubiquitous possibility. Let's lob a few more unannounced missiles at multiple sovereign nations and see what develops. :o( Concerning the dollar, no other currency has rise for the $US to fall, not withstanding the introduction of the Euro in 1999. Nor does the dollar have to fall for other currencies to rise. The dollar is doing well for a variety of reasons, not all of which involve the recent, fortuitous performance of this economy.