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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3555)	8/23/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

Rubel, Banks and Y2K it's a great exposure you wrote, Steve. I agree to the most points, just would like to add a bit: I don't know the relations in internation comparations of banks - but at least in Germany a large part of bank-capital (and their customers capital) is invested - not alone through stocks but also direct, f.e. in companies they are not traded on exchanges. East-credits often were "insuranced" trough the government - but mostly just partly. Bank-customers are only insuranced for pizza-money. So the loss will be distributed trough the nation, the banks capital and the customers capital. But one should not forget that insurance-companies are involved in this business too, having loaned their customers money to Russia (and other nations) too. Obviously such losses will diminuish the "free" captital availabl for investments of every kind and diminuish the capital of companies owned by bancrupt banks. In times when banks need cash, every company who has no credits running from this bank can be happy - there is a certain domino-effect probable. In Germany I heard a number of 150 bio. uncovered losses - but probably a debt-cut will subpone the realization of losses at least for a while. Y2K The fear (what kind of fear ever...) causes huge investments - I could imagine, a good part of these investments are investments in NEW software-installations, meaningful since a long while, but NOW realized forced by this date-problem. The heaven-high P/E of SAP is a part of this effect - and SAP doesn't repair old "host"-programs, they sell new R/3-installations (in every rule). R/3-installations need 1-3 years - thus we could see a boom of SAP-growing (growing of growing of growing...) for a few years. One should not forget that these installations bring a singularity in SAP's resume-statistics. Jury