To: Alex who wrote (16424 ) 8/23/1998 12:50:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116790
ANALYSIS-Russia problems tax government, aid donors 11:34 a.m. Aug 23, 1998 Eastern By Janet Guttsman WASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Russia's economic woes sent shock waves through jittery world financial markets last week, and analysts said solving the problems would strain the abilities of both the government and its financial backers in the West. Russia, which stunned markets a week ago by effectively devaluing the rouble and defaulting on some foreign debt, must balance demands of foreign investors with strident pleas from Russian workers who have not been paid for months. Donors must decide whether to stick to their decision last week to not add more funds to a month-old $23 billion international rescue deal, and whether to stand by President Boris Yeltsin, who holds a summit meeting with U.S. President Bill Clinton next month. ''This was the first time that Clinton failed to come to Yeltsin's aid,'' George Washington University professor James Millar told a news briefing on Friday, referring to the decision to deny Russia's request for more help. ''In my opinion, Yeltsin is the problem. He is not the solution and he has not been the solution for a long time,'' Millar added. The desire to prevent political turmoil in Russia was a key factor behind the approval of the $23 billion July deal, which comprises money from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and from Japan. But the deal unravelled faster than anyone had expected -- Russia spent its initial $4.8 billion injection of IMF cash in a matter of weeks in a futile attempt to defend the rouble -- and Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko said the crisis had only begun. ''We have just entered a serious financial crisis... We cannot allow ourselves the luxury of being a popular government,'' he said on Friday. But Millar said Kiriyenko's government, hailed by many in Washington as the most reformist team Russia has ever had, would not be able to solve problems like dismal tax collection if it was not a popular administration. ''They have got themselves into a really tight situation,'' he said. ''I think until a government exists in Russia that has the support of a substantial part of the population they are not going to be able to collect a significant amount of taxes.'' Russia's financial problems hit currencies and markets around the world on Friday, contributing to a 0.9 percent fall in U.S. shares. Venezuela allowed the bolivar currency to trade more freely within a currency band and the Mexican peso closed at a new low of 9.72/78 to the dollar, battered by fear that crises in Asia and Russia were spreading to Latin America. But U.S. officials said there was no need to change plans for the summit, called before Russia's crisis deepened and before Yeltsin lashed out at U.S. strikes on what Washington says were terrorist targets in Sudan and Afghanistan. ''We have an enormous degree of common business...and the fact that there is a disagreement on this particular issue will not, I think, affect the summit at all,'' National Security Adviser Sandy Berger told a news conference on Friday. Analysts said the debt default would only buy Russia a limited amount of time and had alienated foreign investors, who now want just to keep losses as low as possible. Workers were crying out for long-delayed pay packets and patience had worn out at the State Duma lower house of parliament, which called on Yeltsin to resign. ''They are in a debt trap -- not just formal debts to banks but also debts to their own citizens,'' said Clifford Gaddy, analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, adding that Russian governments had lost credibility by repeatedly failing to live up to their promises on reform. ''I am amazed that anyone still puts any faith in verbal commitments being made by the Russian government,'' he said. But Anders Aslund, a former adviser to the Russian government who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the crisis could provide Russia with the impetus it needs to bring the budget deficit down. ''Crisis means you can get something done,'' he said, adding that Moscow needed to clarify its exchange rate policy, work out how to refinance GKO Treasury bills and resolve a banking crisis, guaranteeing funds of savers, but not of bank owners. ''If they get this right, I think the situation looks reasonably good,'' he said. ''Russia has reasonable reserves and $17 billion of international finance is already committed.'' Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.