To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (16437 ) 8/23/1998 6:47:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116790
FUND VIEW-Hong Kong cannot turn back Asian tide 03:34 a.m. Aug 23, 1998 Eastern By Sarah Davison HONG KONG, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Government interventions in the stock market have provided some support for Hong Kong's battered shares, but such moves are no long-term solution to economic woes plaguing the territory and the region, financial analysts said. The government bought shares last week in a bid to foil speculators, pushing up the Hang Seng index and cheering markets in some other beleaguered Asian centres. But the joy was largely short lived as many investors, unsettled by growing weakness in overseas markets, took advantage of the rally to sell their shares and book profits. Hong Kong is expected to renew its battles with speculators this week as it tries to bolster sentiment amid a slew of economic data expected to confirm it is in recession. But analysts said interventions by the territory's government alone could not turn back the Asian tide, despite tough words from Hong Kong Monetary Authority boss Joseph Yam. Yam was correct when he said Asian market declines were an over-reaction that bore no relation to any reasonable assessment of Asia's prospects, said Don Hanna, economist at Goldman Sachs. ''But Hong Kong, in itself, can't do much about that,'' Hanna said. Global markets are showing every sign of becoming more unstable as the Asian crisis drags on, adding to the bearishness in the region, analysts said. Last week, Wall Street started to wobble as some Latin American currencies looked vulnerable and Russia grappled with financial crisis. ''I think the government was absolutely right to get involved. Given the peg, they couldn't do anything else,'' said Chris Tinker, head of regional economics at ING Barings. The Hong Kong dollar is the last currency in Asia linked to the U.S. dollar and the government has vowed to defend the peg. Some speculators are believed to be attacking the dollar in order to reap profits on stocks. They sell stocks and then move to attack the currency. When banks raise interest rates to defend the dollar, corporate profit outlooks and stock prices usually fall. Speculators can then buy back the shares at a much lower price. Hong Kong is now poised for battle with the speculators, with the nearest Hang Seng index futures contract due to expire at the end of the week. It is an important battle, given the uncertainty shaking global markets. There are widespread fears that a break of the Hong Kong dollar peg -- considered impossible unless the local populace loses all confidence and switches deposits into other currencies -- could have worldwide implications. Ultimately, however, underlying issues such as debt must be addressed to quell Asia's economic turmoil, analysts said. The only solution to Asia's problems and the growing volatility in global emerging markets is a write-down of Asian debt by global banks, said Chris Tinker, head of regional economics at ING Barings. ''The counterparties that have to admit culpability here are the banks,'' Tinker said. ''Banks have to accept responsibility.'' Tinker said the failure of global banks to take the hit on the Asian crisis had kept risk premiums high and prevented Asia from attracting the capital it needed to stabilise. ''By failing to write down debt and therefore maintaining the risk premium demanded on Asian assets, they are preventing the opportunity cost of investment in Asia from falling,'' he said. That has reduced net capital inflows into Asian markets and sustained volatility caused by reduced liquidity, Tinker said. For as long as the banks refuse to admit culpability for the bad lending decisions that produced the Asian crisis, Asia will remain a source of global instability, he said. ''The issue isn't whether or not capital markets or financial markets are more volatile, the issue is what you can do about it and whose responsibility it is,'' Hanna said. -- Hong Kong Newsroom (852) 2843 6470; Fax 2845 0636 -- hongkong.newsroom+reuters.com Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.