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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3459)	8/23/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5504

Comparisons with Arakis, Daily Trading Volume, etc. <<"irrational exuberance" zone>> Sure, but HEC is still primarily an exploration play, and exploration plays are usually built upon hopes and dreams to some extent and typically suffer from at least some of the classic IE symptoms. The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you would want to short this stock at the current price if there were no f******s debentures in play? <<Actually comparison with Arakis makes a lot od sense. Strain claims both are sitting on multi billions barrels elephants, they both have "political instability" risks (in Columbia pipe lines are actually blowing up, while in Sudan, the US is only bombing chemical plants, so far), and this year, HEC has the floorless issue (three of them or about $135 MM face value, pretty close their total cash stash).>> Chuck's a very nice guy, and I respect him as a fellow alumnus, but I think his O&G valuations tend to be overly optimistic in general. Take a look at AKSEF, HEC, and AIPN if you want some confirming data. BTW, I disagree on the political risk front. From a quantitative and qualitative standpoint, political risk in Sudan is measurably higher (about 1/3) than in Columbia. See this post of mine to you from last year for a comparison of the quantitative rankings... Message 1753420 Deja vu all over again, eh? <g> From a qualitative standpoint, I can tell you that my own mom lives in Columbia, near Bogata, where she teaches English and does missionary work for her church. She's pretty risk tolerant when it comes to personal safety, but even she would never live in the Sudan, simply because of the safety concerns. Furthermore, not only is there is an ongoing civil war in the Sudan, which has raged almost non-stop for the better part of 40 years, but there has been international hostilities involving not only the US, but surrounding neighbors as well. Although Columbia is fraught with guerilla conflicts, and its pipelines often get damaged, you have to admit that there is actually a government in control throughout most of the country, and US bombs haven't fallen in Bogata in recent weeks. <g> <<By the way, in you last post, did you imply that HEC announcement that they will buy 5 MM shares within three months was just "talk" and they are not going to act on that?>>* That's what I said. <<If they are going to act, they should start soon, since they have a limit of how many shares they can buy each day (and they are forbidden from buying half an hour after opening and half an hour before closing, and no more than 80,000 shares at current trading rates).>> Hmmm... Seems like that would affect average daily volume. Wouldn't the average Joe Trader with Level II be able to discern whether or not this is actually happening in reality simply by watching the tape intraday? Razor