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To: Rod Copeland who wrote (3462)8/24/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Razorbak  Respond to of 5504
 
Domestic Production Declines

<<I posed this question some time ago, and would like to see if you have any resources that might help me find the answer. Basically, I am trying to find out how much domestic production has declined in the last quarter.>>

Rod: When in need of statistics, I usually go to the master statisticial himself, Uncle Sam. My recommendation would be to visit the Energy Information Administration's website. The EIA's website is a great site for an oil & gas junkie. Chock full of everything you ever wanted to know about supply, demand, and price (and then more). Every O&G analyst that I know has this site bookmarked on their web browser.

When you're through surfing throughout the site in general, try to compare domestic consumption figures with domestic production and inventory figures. If there is a large imbalance, it's usually due to imports. Just like any other mass balance, what goes in must either come out or be consumed in the process.

eia.doe.gov

Possibly some of the decrease that you expected in domestic production is being offset by increasing deepwater GOM production?

<<Perhaps its the nature of our area (primarily stripper wells) and it is not representative of the country. However, stripper production is a a significant percentage of the lower 48's production. I have shut in two-thirds of my wells and I know many others who have done the same, or more. Many are just not going to sell it for $11/bbl.>>

You're absolutely right that marginal prices typically determine which wells get shut in first. The really scary thing about this is that Saudi Arabia can produce for about $2.00/bbl and still make a profit! Do you think they'll ever lose a price war? <vbg>

Good luck in your search.

Razor



To: Rod Copeland who wrote (3462)8/25/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: Razorbak  Respond to of 5504
 
More Info on Domestic Production

Rod: This article from the Houston Chronicle addresses your question directly.

Razor

HoustonChronicle.com
Section: Business
---------------------------------------------------------------------
8:25 PM 8/24/1998

Richardson: U.S. must cut use of foreign oil

Copyright 1998 Houston Chronicle News Services

WASHINGTON -- The United States must reduce its dependence on foreign oil in response to growing international terrorism, new U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson warned Monday, his first day on the job.

The United States imports about half the oil it consumes, and foreign oil shipments are expected to increase as American crude production drops.

Richardson said he wanted to reverse that trend, especially in light of the United States' stronger commitment to fighting international terrorism, a process in which oil shipments were at risk of being interrupted.

"I would like more emphasis in ... the development of resources here," Richardson said. "I want to see us find ways to make it easier for domestic oil production to grow," he told reporters.

"On the terrorism issue, we're in this for the long haul. This is going to be a protracted struggle," Richardson predicted. He said the administration believed "we struck very strongly" in Afghanistan and there was now a heightened risk for Americans.

Meanwhile, prices of crude oil and most of its products rose on the New York Mercantile Exchange after Richardson spoke in favor of revitalizing oil and natural gas businesses.

Richardson said he would "like to ... find ways to make it easier for domestic oil production to grow," such as legislation aimed at providing relief for marginal well producers.

Following a meeting with Department of Energy employees on his first day in office, Richardson also said he would like to see the nation's emergency oil reserves filled to capacity.

Many domestic oil producers are plugging their crude wells as low prices make it uneconomical to pump oil. As a result, foreign oil is flooding the U.S. market.

Preliminary data from the Energy Department shows that the United States imported 261.8 million barrels of crude during June, with 62.9 million barrels coming from the Gulf region.

Iraq, which is refusing to allow U.N. arms inspectors full access to suspected weapons sites, was the ninth-largest supplier of crude to the United States in June, according to the department.


Richardson said he expected Latin American countries such as Mexico and Venezuela to provide more oil to the United States. But that does not necessarily mean the United States will be less dependent on oil from the Middle East, he added.

"Our numbers with the Gulf states, our energy relationships, are good. But our objective is to reduce our dependence, and we're going to try to do that," Richardson said.

October crude rose 27 cents to $13.64 a barrel. September unleaded gasoline rose 0.46 cent to 41.37 cents a gallon, while September heating oil rose 0.56 cent to 34.76 cents a gallon.

But September natural gas fell 2.1 cents to $1.926 per thousand cubic feet.

Natural gas prices retreated last week after forecasters moderated their predictions of a heat wave in key Northeast and Midwest states. Turbines that generate electricity for fans and air conditioners are powered by natural gas.

In London, Brent crude oil rose 28 cents to $12.55 per barrel.