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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5801)	8/23/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Respond to of 9980

LOL! B.

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5801)	8/23/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Kam, Since you say that the solution, devaluations, will add to the contagion, I am curious where you think this will stop. Where do you see this crisis heading/bottoming etc? B.

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5801)	8/23/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Lawrence, and when you do not say "Bunga, Bunga", people do not look at you funny? (VBG) But back to the main argument, why will a devaluation of the Yen prevent Japan from sliding into a deeper recession and even a depression. From where I sit, devaluation will not materially help them in export, furthermore, what the rim needs is not more export from Japan but to Japan. Since Japan trade is close to 50% with the rim countries, they need to see a resurrection of their trading partners' economies, not cutting them further down with competitive devaluations. A major devaluation of the Yen will further deepen the troubles in Southeast Asia. I still see as the only solution a demand driven recovery for Japan, and not necessarily through fiscal stimulation (while a little of that would not hurt) and certainly not through monetary stimulation (this bag of ammunition has been exhausted wastefully), but through building up confidence and spending, and I realize you have difficulties believing in the power of advertising, but Japan united in a suicidal war before, and is required right now is not even suicide. Yes, lowering the xenophobic barriers is part of the deal, but this a small price for Japan to pay for guiding the region back to a growth path. They should do it the "Madison Avenue" way. I realize that people may think it ridiculous, but where are your memories (or least those imprinted on celluloid) of WWI and WWI drive to raise bonds in this country and every where? People were persuaded that this is the right thing to do, and they can be persuaded again. Japan has a tank full of liquidity locked away in accounts that pay close to peanut, if they release just 2% of that into the economy as a one year "buying" binge (add a tax credit for buying stuff above your normal "buying habits" if you have to), and the engines can be restarted. Zeev