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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (28201)	8/23/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Gameboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, it was my opinion that oil would rise to $17/barrel by the end of September. I didn't arrive at that by using any fortune telling device. The Saudi Oil Minister stated that if Brent didn't rise to $17/barrel by the end of September, and that if OPEC had significantly met their production cut quotas, that he believed OPEC would meet again (albeit in October) before their scheduled late November meeting to further cut oil production. Moreover, OPEC is getting lots of help worldwide from the crumbling oil producing infrastructure. It's easy for us sitting at our computer consoles to be insulated from the reality of the dramatic fall in oil prices. Sure oil goes down and we (those invested anyway) lose a few dollars. Russia, however is floundering. Starvation, civil war, and revolution is a possibility. Indonesia has already changed regimes. Nigerian pipelines are being sabotaged. Iran has armed itself with long range missiles. Iraq is raising a stink over weapons inspections. The US just shelled several sovereign countries this past week. Venezuela, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia have dramatically slashed their budgets. These are desperate times - and the low price of oil could easily produce mayhem. Either oil rises the OPEC way or somebody like Iran could well start testing its newly acquired missiles on one of its neighbors, and then oil rises anyway. Understand that Saddam Hussein is not the villain in the middle east that he is in the US. Every time Saddam torched another Kuwaiti oil well, his oil exporting neighbors (except the Kuwaitis) made more money. If you think oil is going to quietly waft down to $8/barrel (or $8.50 if that's the current bear myth), perhaps you need a crystal ball. Slider got it right about the oil service sector, though. Even if the worst case scenario unfolded for the next six months, the decimated prices of the oil service sector stocks are still way too low. People aren't stupid, they're cautious. The time's about right for greed to replace fear. Best of luck, Steve

To: The Ox who wrote (28201)	8/23/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Braddock Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<<DH is only posting to further his short agenda>> Nobody said that Micheal. Diamond's views have not been ignored, by me at least. He's been right on so far. I wish I had listened harder and bought-in now instead of earlier! My issue was that he has an aggressive style and when questioned, he always claimed that his only "agenda" was to counsel the thread, to "pop-in" and make sure we got our reality dose. As it turns out, there are other motivations including the fact that he is shorting. Hey, SI is an open forum; nobody has to say what postion they hold. I've got nothing against Diamond or anybody else who goes short and posts opinions as to why they think the stock is going down. I guess I'm just a naive goofball, but I have alot more respect those bear posters who are also short when they say as much... the same for longs, although it's usually more obvious. Good luck to all. Brad